US Tariff Increase on China: Will Copper Pipe & Tube Exports to the US Decline? [SMM Analysis]

According to data compiled by SMM from the General Administration of Customs, China exported a total of 308,827.3 mt of copper pipe & tube from January to October, up 14.7% YoY. Throughout the year, both the profit opportunities from exports and overseas demand significantly boosted copper pipe & tube exports. However, as year-end approaches, Trump's election victory and his announcement of substantial tariff increases on China, Mexico, and Canada have drawn global attention.

Reviewing the data on China's copper pipe & tube exports from January to October 2024, the total export volume to the US was 22,344.86 mt, accounting for 7.24%. In terms of trade mode, the majority were through Entry and Exit Goods in Bonded Control Areas, Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area, Processing with Imported Materials, and Ordinary Trade.

Additionally, the US may impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada. From January to October 2024, China exported 6,377.02 mt and 4,306.28 mt of copper pipe & tube to Mexico and Canada, accounting for 2.07% and 1.39%, respectively. Golden Dragon Precise Copper Tube Group Inc. established copper pipe & tube companies in Mexico and the US around 2010 and actively invested in production. However, according to SMM, most of the copper pipe & tube produced in the Mexican factory is used locally and not primarily exported to the US. Additionally, Hailiang Group also has a copper pipe & tube factory in the US.

If the US increases tariffs on China, it is expected that the proportion of China's copper pipe & tube exports to the US will decrease, while the operating rate of producers at overseas factories of domestic enterprises will further increase.