Coke Fundamentals Weaken, Prices Projected to Stay Stable with Downward Fluctuations Next Week

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Nov 29, 2024 16:49

[SMM Daily Review: Coke Fundamentals Gradually Weaken, Coke Prices May Remain Stable Next Week]

Today, coking coal futures fluctuated rangebound, and the spot market saw sluggish transactions. Supply side, coal mine production remained stable overall, continuing the recent relatively loose supply pattern. Demand side, traders exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment, and online auction transactions were sluggish. End-use coking plants primarily restocked as needed. The supply and demand fundamentals for coking coal remained loose. Therefore, coking coal prices are expected to continue fluctuating downward next week.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
[SMM ์ฒ ๊ฐ•] ์šด์†ก ๋ณ‘๋ชฉํ˜„์ƒ๊ณผ ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ๋กœ ์ด๋ž€ ๋ฐ˜์ œํ’ˆ ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๋ฌด์—ญ ์œ„์ถ•
4๋ถ„ ์ „
[SMM ์ฒ ๊ฐ•] ์šด์†ก ๋ณ‘๋ชฉํ˜„์ƒ๊ณผ ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ๋กœ ์ด๋ž€ ๋ฐ˜์ œํ’ˆ ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๋ฌด์—ญ ์œ„์ถ•
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[SMM ์ฒ ๊ฐ•] ์šด์†ก ๋ณ‘๋ชฉํ˜„์ƒ๊ณผ ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ๋กœ ์ด๋ž€ ๋ฐ˜์ œํ’ˆ ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๋ฌด์—ญ ์œ„์ถ•
[SMM ์ฒ ๊ฐ•] ์šด์†ก ๋ณ‘๋ชฉํ˜„์ƒ๊ณผ ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ๋กœ ์ด๋ž€ ๋ฐ˜์ œํ’ˆ ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๋ฌด์—ญ ์œ„์ถ•
[์ด๋ž€] ์ด๋ž€์˜ ๋ฐ˜์ œํ’ˆ ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜์™€ ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๋ถ€๋ฌธ ๊ฐ„ ๋šœ๋ ทํ•œ ์–‘๊ทนํ™”๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€๋‹ค. ๋นŒ๋ฆฟ ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์—์„œ๋Š” ์„ ์  ์ œ์•ฝ, ํ•ด์ƒ ์œ„ํ—˜ ๊ณ ์กฐ, ์—ญ๋‚ด ์ˆ˜์š” ๋ƒ‰๊ฐ์œผ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€์ง„ํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ˆ˜์ถœ ์˜คํผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ FOB ํ†ค๋‹น 410~415๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋กœ ์•ฝ์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€๊ณ  ์„ฑ์‚ฌ๋œ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋„ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ 1๋งŒ~1๋งŒ 5์ฒœ ํ†ค ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ๋ฐ”์ง€์„  ํ™”๋ฌผ์ด๋‚˜ ์†Œ๊ทœ๋ชจ ์—ญ๋‚ด ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰์— ๊ทธ์ณค๋‹ค. ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด ๋‚ด์ˆ˜ ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ํ˜„์ง€ ํ†ตํ™”์˜ ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํ•œ ํ‰๊ฐ€์ ˆํ•˜์™€ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ  ์ „๋ ฅ๋‚œ์— ํž˜์ž…์–ด ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋ƒˆ๋‹ค. ์Šฌ๋ž˜๋ธŒ ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ถœ ํ˜ธ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ FOB ํ†ค๋‹น 420๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋กœ ์†Œํญ ํ•˜๋ฝํ–ˆ์œผ๋‚˜, ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•œ ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ, ์„ ์ฃผ๋“ค์˜ ์—„๊ฒฉํ•œ ์ปดํ”Œ๋ผ์ด์–ธ์Šค ์‹ฌ์‚ฌ, ์˜ค๋งŒ์ด๋‚˜ UAE๋ฅผ ๊ฒฝ์œ ํ•œ ์„ ์  ๊ฒฝ๋กœ ๋ณ€๊ฒฝ ํ•„์š”์„ฑ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฌผ๋ฅ˜ ๋น„์šฉ๊ณผ ์ดํ–‰ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ์ด ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ํ•ด์™ธ ๋งค์ˆ˜์„ธ๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๋žญํ•˜์—ฌ ์‹œ์žฅ์—์„œ ๋Œ€ํ˜• ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ๋ผ์กŒ๋‹ค.
4๋ถ„ ์ „
[SMM ์ฒ ๊ฐ•] ์œ ๋Ÿฝ ์—ด์—ฐ์ฝ”์ผ ์‹œ์žฅ, ์ œ๊ฐ•์‚ฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒ์ด ๊ตฌ๋งค์ž ์ €ํ•ญ์— ๋ถ€๋”ชํžˆ๋ฉฐ ํ˜ผ์กฐ์„ธ
5๋ถ„ ์ „
[SMM ์ฒ ๊ฐ•] ์œ ๋Ÿฝ ์—ด์—ฐ์ฝ”์ผ ์‹œ์žฅ, ์ œ๊ฐ•์‚ฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒ์ด ๊ตฌ๋งค์ž ์ €ํ•ญ์— ๋ถ€๋”ชํžˆ๋ฉฐ ํ˜ผ์กฐ์„ธ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[SMM ์ฒ ๊ฐ•] ์œ ๋Ÿฝ ์—ด์—ฐ์ฝ”์ผ ์‹œ์žฅ, ์ œ๊ฐ•์‚ฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒ์ด ๊ตฌ๋งค์ž ์ €ํ•ญ์— ๋ถ€๋”ชํžˆ๋ฉฐ ํ˜ผ์กฐ์„ธ
[SMM ์ฒ ๊ฐ•] ์œ ๋Ÿฝ ์—ด์—ฐ์ฝ”์ผ ์‹œ์žฅ, ์ œ๊ฐ•์‚ฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒ์ด ๊ตฌ๋งค์ž ์ €ํ•ญ์— ๋ถ€๋”ชํžˆ๋ฉฐ ํ˜ผ์กฐ์„ธ
[์œ ๋Ÿฝ] ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์˜ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„ ํœด๊ฐ€์ฒ ์ด ๋ง‰๋ฐ”์ง€๋กœ ์ ‘์–ด๋“ค๋ฉด์„œ ๋ถ์„œ์œ ๋Ÿฝ๊ณผ ์ดํƒˆ๋ฆฌ์•„ ์ „์—ญ์˜ ์—ด์—ฐ์ฝ”์ผ(HRC) ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ์ข์€ ๋ฒ”์œ„์—์„œ ๋ณดํ•ฉ์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์˜€๋‹ค. ๋ถ์„œ์œ ๋Ÿฝ ๊ณต์žฅ๋„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ 733์œ ๋กœ/ํ†ค EXW(์•ฝ 851๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ/ํ†ค)๋กœ ๋งˆ๊ฐ๋๊ณ , ์ดํƒˆ๋ฆฌ์•„ ๊ณต์žฅ๋„ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ 727์œ ๋กœ/ํ†ค EXW(์•ฝ 844๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ/ํ†ค)๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ๋Š” ์ผ๋ถ€ ๋ถ์„œ์œ ๋Ÿฝ ์ œ์ฒ ์†Œ๊ฐ€ ๋‚จ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์œผ๋กœ 11์›” ์„ ์ ๋ถ„์„ ์ ๊ทน์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ œ์•ˆํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์„ 790์œ ๋กœ/ํ†ค DDP(์•ฝ 917.50๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ/ํ†ค)๊นŒ์ง€ ์˜ฌ๋ ธ๊ณ , ์ผ๋ถ€ ์ดํƒˆ๋ฆฌ์•„ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์—…์ฒด๋Š” 750~760์œ ๋กœ/ํ†ค DDP(์•ฝ 870~883๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ/ํ†ค)๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์„ ์ธ์ƒํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ์ตœ์ข… ์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต์ด ๋”๋””๊ณ  ๊ตฌ๋งค์ž๋“ค์ด ๋†’์€ ๋น„์šฉ์„ ์ „๊ฐ€ํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ธ์ƒ๋œ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ˆ˜์ค€์€ ์‹œ์žฅ์—์„œ ๋Œ€์ฒด๋กœ ๊ฑฐ๋ถ€๋๋‹ค. ์ˆ˜์ž… ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์—์„œ๋Š” ํ„ฐํ‚ค ์ œ์ฒ ์†Œ๊ฐ€ ์œ ๋Ÿฝํ–ฅ ์ˆ˜์ถœ ์˜คํผ๋ฅผ 565~580์œ ๋กœ/ํ†ค CFR(์•ฝ 656~673๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ/ํ†ค, ๊ด€์„ธ ์ œ์™ธ)๋กœ ์œ ์ง€ํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ด€์„ธยท์ฟผํ„ฐยท์ปดํ”Œ๋ผ์ด์–ธ์Šค ์œ„ํ—˜์ด ๋ณตํ•ฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘์šฉํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๊ตฌ๋งค์ž ๊ด€์‹ฌ์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๋ฏธ๋ฏธํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
5๋ถ„ ์ „
9์›” 3์ผ ์ „๊ตญ ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์žฌ๊ณ  ํ˜„ํ™ฉ
33๋ถ„ ์ „
9์›” 3์ผ ์ „๊ตญ ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์žฌ๊ณ  ํ˜„ํ™ฉ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
9์›” 3์ผ ์ „๊ตญ ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์žฌ๊ณ  ํ˜„ํ™ฉ
9์›” 3์ผ ์ „๊ตญ ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์žฌ๊ณ  ํ˜„ํ™ฉ
9์›” 3์ผ ๊ธฐ์ค€, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ์ด ์ฒ ๊ทผ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋Š” 647.76๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 9.49๋งŒ ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œํ•ด 1.44% ์ค„์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์Œ๋ ฅ ๊ธฐ์ค€ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 17.55% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ์ด ์„ ์žฌ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋Š” 144.83๋งŒ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 4.02๋งŒ ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œํ•ด 2.70% ์ค„์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์Œ๋ ฅ ๊ธฐ์ค€ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 12.85% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
33๋ถ„ ์ „
[SMM Daily Review: Coke Fundamentals Gradually Weaken, Coke Prices May - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)