[SMM Analysis] How is China's automobile (including NEV) export market performing?

In October 2024, the export volume of NEVs was 200,000 units, with a YoY growth rate of 1% and a MoM growth rate of 10%. From January to October 2024, the cumulative export volume of NEVs reached 1.72 million units, up 15% YoY.

China's NEV exports to developed markets are showing high-quality development, mainly targeting Western Europe and Southeast Asia. In the past two years, developed countries in Western and Southern Europe, such as Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, and the UK, have consistently been export highlights, with a slight decline in October. Meanwhile, exports to American countries like Brazil have strengthened this year. Independent brands like SAIC Passenger Cars and BYD's NEV models have shown resilience. NEV exports to Europe temporarily slowed in October, but the gradual adaptation to the European anti-subsidy impact is expected.

I. Overall Trend of China's Automobile Exports

1. Annual Trend of Automobile Exports

Due to the pandemic impact and the localization of Tesla, China's automobile exports achieved significant breakthroughs in both volume and unit price from 2021 to 2023. In 2023, China exported 5.22 million vehicles, with a sustained strong growth rate of 57%. From January to October 2024, China exported 5.28 million vehicles, up 25% YoY. As long as there is a stable market environment internationally, the future development of China's automobile exports still has great potential.

In 2020, the annual sales volume reached 1.085 million units, down 13.1% YoY. In 2021, the export market sales volume was 2.187 million units, up 102% YoY.

In 2022, the export market sales volume was 3.4 million units, up 55% YoY, mainly due to insufficient overseas supply and a significant increase in the export competitiveness of Chinese automakers. In 2023, China exported 5.22 million vehicles, with a sustained strong growth rate of 54%, showing exceptional performance. Compared to the gradual recovery of domestic automobile sales, the export market performance remained exceptionally strong. The significant growth in China's exports over the past two years was driven by the international pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

In October 2024, China exported 590,000 vehicles, with a YoY growth rate of 11% compared to October 2023 and a MoM decline of 3%, showing stable YoY and MoM trends. From January to October 2024, China exported 5.28 million vehicles, with a growth rate of 25%. The main drivers this year are the improved competitiveness of Chinese products, the slight growth in markets of southern countries globally, and the replacement of international brands by Chinese cars in the Russian market due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, especially the increased export competitiveness of Chinese fuel vehicles.

2. Monthly Trend of Complete Vehicle Exports

From a monthly perspective, recent years' exports still show seasonal characteristics, with higher exports in summer contrasting with domestic trends. In 2022, the car market started strong but showed a monthly MoM decline in export volume from February to April due to the Shanghai pandemic impact, followed by continuous growth from May to December. In 2023, exports continued to remain strong, maintaining the Q4 2022 sales volume, reflecting a significant increase in the global competitiveness of China's automotive industry.

From January to October 2024, China's automobile exports generally followed the gradual strengthening trend of previous years. The growth rate in Q1 slowed down compared to the ultra-high growth rates of the past three years, rebounded in April and May, weakened in June, and resumed growth from July, with August being exceptionally strong and a slowdown in September and October. The export growth in January and February was only 20%, over 30% from March to May, and the Q3 automobile exports strengthened despite the complex external environment. The October trend was unusually low.

3. Types of Vehicles Exported

In 2024, the export growth rate of passenger cars rebounded, with the trend from July to September being better than the growth rate in H1, and a decline in October. In October 2024, the export of pure electric passenger cars fell to -11%, while plug-in hybrids and hybrid vehicles remained strong. From January to October, the export of hybrid passenger cars was strong. This year, truck and bus exports were sluggish, but diesel trucks and gasoline light buses showed strong trends, indicating a shift in growth drivers.

II. NEV Export Trends

1. Annual Characteristics of NEV Complete Vehicle Exports

As China's domestic NEV market transitions from subsidy-driven to market-driven, the market competitiveness of Chinese NEVs has significantly increased. China's NEV exports experienced explosive growth starting in 2021, entering a period of sustained high growth. Despite the interference from EU NEV export policies this year, China's NEV exports still reached 1.72 million units from January to October 2024, up 15% YoY.

The NEV export trend has been sluggish since June, with significant market pressure. However, there has not yet been a negative growth situation.

2. Structural Characteristics of NEV Complete Vehicle Exports

Before 2019, the export volume of NEVs was relatively large, but passenger cars were mainly micro low-speed electric vehicles, with a small number of mainstream NEV models.

The structure and quantity of NEV passenger car exports have improved. From 2020 to 2022, NEV exports performed well, with a cumulative export of 1.73 million NEVs in 2023.

In October 2024, 200,000 NEVs were exported, up 3% YoY. From January to October, 1.72 million NEVs were exported, up 19% YoY. From January to October 2024, 1.68 million NEV passenger cars were exported, up 20% YoY, accounting for 98% of the total NEV exports. Recently, the export of NEV buses and special vehicles has declined rapidly, with the export growth rate of NEV buses slowing sharply to 9,000 units from January to October, up 10% YoY.

4. Annual Characteristics of NEV Passenger Car Export Destinations

In 2022, NEV exports grew by 90% YoY. NEV exports mainly targeted the European and Asian markets.

In 2023, China exported 1.74 million NEV passenger cars, achieving a strong growth rate of 55%. From January to October 2024, NEV exports reached 1.73 million units, growing by 19%, with a 3% growth rate in October, which was relatively average.

This year, China's NEV exports to countries like Belgium in Europe have gradually improved, especially with YoY growth in October exports to Belgium, while exports to Brazil have significantly declined. NEV exports to Australia have sharply declined, but recently, China's exports to Israel have rebounded, with Chinese cars maintaining a strong advantage in Israel.