SMM Analysis: Macroeconomic Factors Influence Metal Markets with LME Copper Fluctuating Narrowly

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Nov 15, 2024 19:21
[SMM Analysis] In the macroeconomic aspect, this week, the core inflation indicators in both the US and Europe were higher than market expectations, with signs of imported inflation pressure due to geopolitical factors. Although a 25BP interest rate cut next week remains the mainstream market view, some opinions suggest that the pace of subsequent interest rate cuts will slow down. As the US election approaches, the market's betting probability on Trump's victory has increased. The Nasdaq index hit a new high for the year mid-week, while spot gold reached a new historical high, and the US Treasury yield rose to around 4.27%. Affected by these disturbances, the US dollar index moderately fell to around the 104-point mark within the week. Under the intertwining of bullish and bearish factors, LME copper fluctuated narrowly between $9,500/mt and $9,600/mt.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์šด์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ๊ตฌ๋งค๊ฐ€ ์œ„์ถ•๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ๊ณผ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์šด์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ๊ตฌ๋งค๊ฐ€ ์œ„์ถ•๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ๊ณผ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์šด์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ๊ตฌ๋งค๊ฐ€ ์œ„์ถ•๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ๊ณผ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค์šด์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ๊ตฌ๋งค๊ฐ€ ์œ„์ถ•๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ๊ณผ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์š” ๋ถ€์ง„์ด ์ด์ค‘ ์••๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘์šฉํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์—…๊ณ„๋Š” ์นจ์ฒด๋œ ํ๋ฆ„์„ ์ด์–ด๊ฐ”๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์—…๊ณ„ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ์€ ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 2.47%ํฌ์ธํŠธ ํ•˜๋ฝํ–ˆ๊ณ , ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋Š” ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 1.14%ํฌ์ธํŠธ ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์œ„์ถ•, ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ์†Œ [SMM ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์‹œ์žฅ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์œ„์ถ•, ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ์†Œ [SMM ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์‹œ์žฅ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์œ„์ถ•, ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ์†Œ [SMM ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์‹œ์žฅ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์œ„์ถ•, ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ์†Œ [SMM ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์‹œ์žฅ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์—…๊ณ„ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ์ด ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ(8์›” 21์ผ~8์›” 27์ผ) ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ ํ•˜๋ฝํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค ....
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์บก์Šคํ†ค, ์‚ฐ ํ”ผ์—ํŠธ๋กœ ์ธ์ˆ˜ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์•„ํƒ€์นด๋งˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ง€๊ตฌ ํ†ตํ•ฉ
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์บก์Šคํ†ค, ์‚ฐ ํ”ผ์—ํŠธ๋กœ ์ธ์ˆ˜ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์•„ํƒ€์นด๋งˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ง€๊ตฌ ํ†ตํ•ฉ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์บก์Šคํ†ค, ์‚ฐ ํ”ผ์—ํŠธ๋กœ ์ธ์ˆ˜ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์•„ํƒ€์นด๋งˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ง€๊ตฌ ํ†ตํ•ฉ
์บก์Šคํ†ค, ์‚ฐ ํ”ผ์—ํŠธ๋กœ ์ธ์ˆ˜ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋กœ ์•„ํƒ€์นด๋งˆ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ง€๊ตฌ ํ†ตํ•ฉ
์บก์Šคํ†ค ์ฝ”ํผ๋Š” 2026๋…„ 8์›” 31์ผ ์น ๋ ˆ ์•„ํƒ€์นด๋งˆ ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ์‚ฐ ํ”ผ์—ํŠธ๋กœ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ-๊ธˆ-์ฒ -์ฝ”๋ฐœํŠธ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์ธ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์™„๋ฃŒํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ณจ๋“  ์• ๋กœ์šฐ์™€ SSA์˜ ํ•ฉ์ž‘๋ฒ•์ธ์ธ ๋‰ด ๊ณจ๋“  ์ต์Šคํ”Œ๋กœ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ์น ๋ ˆ์— ์บก์Šคํ†ค ์ฃผ์‹ 2,500๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์–ด์น˜๋ฅผ ์ง€๊ธ‰ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋งŒํ† ๋ฒ ๋ฅด๋ฐ, ์‚ฐํ†  ๋„๋ฐ๊ณ , ์‹œ์—๋ผ ๋…ธ๋ฅดํ…Œ ๊ด‘๊ตฌ ์‚ฌ์ด์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ ์‚ฐ ํ”ผ์—ํŠธ๋กœ๋Š” ์•ฝ 1๋งŒ 6,000ํ—ฅํƒ€๋ฅด์˜ ์œ ๋ง ๋ถ€์ง€๋ฅผ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ฆฐ์ฝ”๋„ค์Šค ๋ฐ ์ฝ”์•ผ ๋งค์žฅ์ง€์—๋Š” ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ 0.23%, ๊ธˆ 0.05g/t์˜ ์ถ”์ • ๊ด‘๋Ÿ‰ 4์–ต 9,200๋งŒ ํ†ค์ด ๋ถ€์กด๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฐ˜๊ฒฝ 20km ๋‚ด ์บก์Šคํ†ค์˜ ๊ด‘๊ถŒ์—๋Š” ํ˜„์žฌ ์ธก์ • ๋ฐ ์ง€์‹œ ๊ด‘๋Ÿ‰ ์•ฝ 16์–ต ํ†ค๊ณผ ์ถ”์ • ๊ด‘๋Ÿ‰ 14์–ต ํ†ค์ด ํ™•๋ณด๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค. 2024๋…„ ์‹œ์—๋ผ ๋…ธ๋ฅดํ…Œ ์ธ์ˆ˜์™€ 2025๋…„ ENAMI ์˜ต์…˜์— ์ด์€ ์ด๋ฒˆ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋กœ ๊ด‘๊ตฌ ์ธํ”„๋ผ๊ฐ€ ํ†ตํ•ฉ๋˜๊ณ  ํ–ฅํ›„ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์„ฑ์žฅ ์˜ต์…˜์ด ํ™•๋Œ€๋œ๋‹ค.
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM Analysis] In the macroeconomic aspect, this week, the core inflat - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)