Overnight Copper Prices Rebound as Market Awaits More Guidance [SMM Morning Comment]

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,631/mt, initially fluctuated slightly and reached a high of $9,637/mt. It then fluctuated downward throughout the session, hitting a low of $9,553.5/mt near the close, and finally rebounded slightly to close at $9,591/mt, up 0.75%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, and open interest was 278,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2411 contract opened at 76,920 yuan/mt, initially reached a high of 77,150 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward slightly throughout the session, hitting a low of 76,630 yuan/mt near the close, and finally rebounded slightly to close at 76,870 yuan/mt, up 0.39%. Trading volume reached 22,000 lots, and open interest was 142,000 lots. Macro side, traders currently estimate a 97.2% probability that the US Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November. The market is also focusing more on the US retail sales and weekly initial jobless claims data to be released tonight, seeking the latest clues on the Fed's monetary easing cycle, leading to a rebound in copper prices. Fundamentally, from the supply side, there has been a continuous large inflow of imported copper into domestic market this week, increasing the supply of spot copper cathode, but traders' activity remains low. Meanwhile, copper prices continue to fluctuate downward, with limited downstream consumption willingness, mainly driven by rigid demand, resulting in overall poor spot market transactions. In terms of prices, the State Council's press conference will be held at 10 a.m. today, and the market is hoping for more support for the real estate sector from China. Copper prices are expected to stabilize today.