[SMM Analysis] September Overseas Ternary Cathode Materials Market Analysis

According to SMM data,In September 2024, the total production of overseas ternary cathode materials was 28,750 mt, down 10% MoM. Regarding regional shares, South Korea accounted for 74%, Japan 20%, and Europe and other regions 6%. Due to differences in NEV battery routes between overseas and domestic markets, overseas markets mainly focus on medium to high nickel ternary batteries, aiming for higher performance and longer range. Therefore, the 8-series still dominates, accounting for 67%. As the domestic 6-series high-voltage ternary batteries gain popularity, overseas markets are also moving in this direction, with the 6-series accounting for about 22%, which will gradually encroach on the market share of the 8-series. The demand for the 5-series has always been weak overseas, accounting for less than 10%.

Regarding the market structure of overseas cathode active material manufacturers, LGC, ECOPRO, and Sumitomo ranked in the top three in terms of shipments, with CR3 at 61% and CR5 at 78%. Compared to the domestic market, the overseas market is more concentrated, with a stronger leading effect.

Demand side, in September, the production of ternary power battery cells by overseas battery cell manufacturers was 12.7 GWh, up 3% MoM, consistent with the growth rate of domestic ternary battery cells, but lower-than-expected. On one hand, overseas NEV sales performed poorly compared to domestic sales:

1.European market: The EU's subsidy policy for electric vehicles has been reduced, overseas regions lack charging infrastructure, and economic factors such as rising electricity prices and declining incomes have significantly reduced European consumers' enthusiasm for purchasing electric vehicles. On October 4, the EU voted and ultimately decided to impose a five-year anti-subsidy tax on Chinese pure electric vehicles. This proposal received the necessary support from EU member states, and the European Commission announced a tariff of up to 45% on pure electric vehicles imported from China, which will further impact domestic NEV exports.
2.US market: The electrification trend in the US has slowed down. In 2024, due to the impact of the FEOC Act, some car models lost their subsidy eligibility, coupled with supply constraints of affordable new models, resulting in lower-than-expected market performance in the US.

On the other hand, with fierce competition among end-use car manufacturers and continuous cost reduction and efficiency improvement, LFP batteries, with their excellent safety performance, significant cost-effectiveness, and environmental friendliness, are gradually becoming the favorite in the NEV market.

SMM believes that this year, with the continued low sales of overseas NEVs and the weakening demand for ternary batteries, it remains difficult for the overseas market for ternary materials to recover. It is estimated that the overseas production schedule for ternary materials in October will be 27,000 mt, down 6% MoM. However, with the release of many new car models in the US in 2025 and the increasingly stringent EU carbon emission standards for cars, automakers will accelerate their electrification transition, and the overseas NEV market is expected to return to high growth after experiencing a low in 2024.