Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,065.5/mt. Due to the strengthening US dollar index, it fluctuated downward after the opening, reaching a low of $2,035.5/mt during the European session. It then rebounded and closed at $2,078.5/mt, up 0.29%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2411 contract opened at 16,495 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,460 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, and then was boosted by the rise in LME lead to reach 16,770 yuan/mt, finally closing at 16,780 yuan/mt, with an increase of 1.7%.
Macro side, the market expects the US Fed to cut interest rates at a slow pace over the next year and a half and Trump to win the election, which may boost the US dollar. The US dollar index continued to rise, reaching a more than two-month high. US Fed's Daly stated that the monetary policy remains restrictive and the Fed is working to reduce inflation. China's State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on Thursday regarding the promotion of stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The China Financial Regulatory Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to deploy local governments to establish a coordination mechanism to support financing for small and micro enterprises.
Spot fundamentals, the overall macro atmosphere is relatively warm, and the import window for lead ingots remains closed. Additionally, the supply issues of lead concentrate and battery scrap within the year have not been fully alleviated, providing good support for lead prices. Although refined lead supply is expected to recover mainly in late October, downstream consumption, especially the operation of producers for automotive start-stop batteries, is expected to improve. The lead market fundamentals may enter a phase of simultaneous increase in supply and demand. Further attention is needed on the recovery progress of smelter production and changes in domestic social inventory.
