Pre-National Day destocking accelerated, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory falling below 700,000 mt

In the first half of September, domestic aluminum ingot inventory successively broke through the 800,000 mt and 750,000 mt marks, slightly exceeding our previous expectations. Entering the second half, the Mid-Autumn Festival became the first test for domestic aluminum ingot destocking during this year's "September-October peak season." Despite the holiday impact, last week's domestic aluminum ingot outflows from warehouses were only 71,500 mt, showing a significant WoW decrease. However, during this period, domestic aluminum ingot maintained its destocking pace. As the National Day approached, driven by pre-holiday stocking sentiment, domestic aluminum ingot inventory quickly fell below 700,000 mt. The continuation of destocking sentiment in the second half of the month provided strong support for recent aluminum price performance. As of September 24, 2024, SMM statistics showed total social inventory of aluminum ingots at 697,000 mt, with domestic circulating aluminum inventory at 571,000 mt, a decrease of 46,000 mt from after the Mid-Autumn Festival (last Wednesday), and a continuous decrease of 114,000 mt since the end of August, temporarily 176,000 mt higher YoY. According to preliminary SMM surveys, no significant increase in arrivals is expected in major consumption areas during the National Day holiday, and in-transit volumes are likely to decrease YoY. It is temporarily expected that domestic aluminum ingot accumulation during the National Day holiday will be around 100,000 mt, with inventory in the first half of October continuing to fluctuate around 700,000-800,000 mt.