SMM Lead Market: Macro Stimulus vs. Weak Demand, Focus on Pre-Holiday Inventory Buildup

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Sep 24, 2024 09:00
[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Weak Reality Versus Strong Macroeconomics, Continue to Focus on Pre-Holiday Inventory Preparation for Lead Price Movement] Today, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, with Pan Gongsheng, Li Yunze, and Wu Qing in attendance. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that it would recently reduce the required reserve ratio (RRR) by 0.5 percentage points and would consider further reductions by 0.25-0.5 percentage points at the end of the year, which would lower the central bank's policy interest rates. In terms of fundamentals, in late September, the maintenance of primary lead and secondary lead smelting enterprises gradually came to an end, leading to a steady increase in lead ingot production, while lead consumption remained average...

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
๋ ˆ๋“œ๋… ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ˆ˜๋ช… ์—ฐ์žฅ, ๊ณ ํ’ˆ์œ„ ์•„์—ฐ-๋‚ฉ ์ž์› ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ FAST-41 ์ ์šฉ ๋Œ€์ƒ์— ํฌํ•จ
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋ ˆ๋“œ๋… ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ˆ˜๋ช… ์—ฐ์žฅ, ๊ณ ํ’ˆ์œ„ ์•„์—ฐ-๋‚ฉ ์ž์› ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ FAST-41 ์ ์šฉ ๋Œ€์ƒ์— ํฌํ•จ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ ˆ๋“œ๋… ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ˆ˜๋ช… ์—ฐ์žฅ, ๊ณ ํ’ˆ์œ„ ์•„์—ฐ-๋‚ฉ ์ž์› ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ FAST-41 ์ ์šฉ ๋Œ€์ƒ์— ํฌํ•จ
๋ ˆ๋“œ๋… ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ˆ˜๋ช… ์—ฐ์žฅ, ๊ณ ํ’ˆ์œ„ ์•„์—ฐ-๋‚ฉ ์ž์› ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ FAST-41 ์ ์šฉ ๋Œ€์ƒ์— ํฌํ•จ
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ํ—ˆ๊ฐ€์œ„์›ํšŒ๋Š” ์•Œ๋ž˜์Šค์นด ๋ถ์„œ๋ถ€์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ ๋ ˆ๋“œ๋… ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ˆ˜๋ช… ์—ฐ์žฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์— FAST-41 ์ ์šฉ์„ ์Šน์ธํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” Aktigiruq ๋ฐ Anarraaq ๊ด‘์ฒด์—์„œ ์ง€ํ•˜ ์žฅ๊ณต ์ฑ„๊ตด์„ ์ œ์•ˆํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ฑ„๊ตด๋œ ๊ด‘์„์€ ๋ ˆ๋“œ๋…์˜ ๊ธฐ์กด ์„ ๊ด‘ ์‹œ์„ค์—์„œ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ๋˜์–ด ๋ ˆ๋“œ๋…์˜ ์šด์˜ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์„ ์•ฝ 14๋…„ ์—ฐ์žฅํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ ์œก๊ตฐ ๊ณต๋ณ‘๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ ํ—ˆ๊ฐ€ ์‹ฌ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์ฃผ๋„ํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋‹ค. Teck์€ Aktigiruq์—์„œ ์•„์—ฐ ํ’ˆ์œ„ 15.8%์˜ ํ™•์ธ ์ž์›๋Ÿ‰ 4,220๋งŒ ํ†ค๊ณผ ์•„์—ฐ ํ’ˆ์œ„ 11.8%์˜ ์ถ”์ • ์ž์›๋Ÿ‰ 1,880๋งŒ ํ†ค์„ ๋ณด๊ณ ํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, Anarraaq์—์„œ๋Š” ์•„์—ฐ ํ’ˆ์œ„ 14.0%์˜ ์ถ”์ • ์ž์›๋Ÿ‰ 1,700๋งŒ ํ†ค์„ ๋ณด๊ณ ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‘ ๊ด‘์ฒด ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋‚ฉ, ์€, ๊ฒŒ๋ฅด๋งˆ๋Š„๋„ ํ•จ์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. FAST-41 ์ ์šฉ์€ ์กฐ์œจ๋˜๊ณ  ํˆฌ๋ช…ํ•œ ํ—ˆ๊ฐ€ ์ ˆ์ฐจ๋ฅผ ์ง€์›ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์ตœ์ข… ํ—ˆ๊ฐ€ ์Šน์ธ์ด๋‚˜ ์ƒ์—…์  ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์„ฑ๋‹ค์ž์› ์žํšŒ์‚ฌ, ๊ด‘์—…๊ถŒ ํ†ตํ•ฉ ์™„๋ฃŒโ€ฆ์ฑ„๊ตด ๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋ฐ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ์ž ์žฌ๋ ฅ ํ™•๋Œ€
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์„ฑ๋‹ค์ž์› ์žํšŒ์‚ฌ, ๊ด‘์—…๊ถŒ ํ†ตํ•ฉ ์™„๋ฃŒโ€ฆ์ฑ„๊ตด ๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋ฐ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ์ž ์žฌ๋ ฅ ํ™•๋Œ€
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์„ฑ๋‹ค์ž์› ์žํšŒ์‚ฌ, ๊ด‘์—…๊ถŒ ํ†ตํ•ฉ ์™„๋ฃŒโ€ฆ์ฑ„๊ตด ๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋ฐ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ์ž ์žฌ๋ ฅ ํ™•๋Œ€
์„ฑ๋‹ค์ž์› ์žํšŒ์‚ฌ, ๊ด‘์—…๊ถŒ ํ†ตํ•ฉ ์™„๋ฃŒโ€ฆ์ฑ„๊ตด ๊ตฌ์—ญ ๋ฐ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ์ž ์žฌ๋ ฅ ํ™•๋Œ€
9์›” 2์ผ, ์„ฑ๋‹ค์ž์›์€ ์žํšŒ์‚ฌ ์ธ ํŽ‘์ง„๋‘๊ด‘์—…์œ ํ•œ๊ณต์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์Šค๋”” ์€-๋‚ฉ-์•„์—ฐ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์˜ ์ฑ„๊ตด๊ถŒ๊ณผ ์Šค๋”” ์ฃผ๋ณ€ ๋‚ฉ-์•„์—ฐ ๋‹ค๊ธˆ์† ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์˜ ํƒ์‚ฌ๊ถŒ ํ†ตํ•ฉ์„ ์™„๋ฃŒํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ง„๋‘๊ด‘์—…์€ ์ธ ํŽ‘์‹œ ์ž์—ฐ์ž์›๊ตญ์ด ๋ฐœ๊ธ‰ํ•œ ๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ ์†Œ์œ ๊ถŒ ์ฆ์„œ(์ฑ„๊ตด๊ถŒ)์™€ ์ฑ„๊ตด ํ—ˆ๊ฐ€์ฆ์„ ๋ฐ›์•˜๋‹ค. ํ†ตํ•ฉ ํ›„ ์ฑ„๊ตด ๋ฉด์ ์€ 4.4750kmยฒ์—์„œ 5.2397kmยฒ๋กœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ๋ณ€๊ฒฝ์€ ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํšŒ์‚ฌ ๊ฒฝ์˜ ์‹ค์ ์— ์ค‘๋Œ€ํ•œ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์ฑ„๊ตด ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ ์ž์›์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์ด ์—ฐ์žฅ๋˜์–ด ํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ๋ฐœ์ „์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ž์› ์ง€์›์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๋œ๋‹ค.
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
LME ๋‚ฉ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ•˜๋ฝ ์••๋ ฅ ์† 0.86% ํ•˜๋ฝ, ์ƒํ•˜์ด ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ ์•ผ๊ฐ„์žฅ ๋™๋ฐ˜ ํ•˜๋ฝํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๋ณผ๋ฆฐ์ € ์ค‘๊ฐ„์„  ์œ ์ง€ [SMM ๋‚ฉ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋‰ด์Šค]
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
LME ๋‚ฉ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ•˜๋ฝ ์••๋ ฅ ์† 0.86% ํ•˜๋ฝ, ์ƒํ•˜์ด ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ ์•ผ๊ฐ„์žฅ ๋™๋ฐ˜ ํ•˜๋ฝํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๋ณผ๋ฆฐ์ € ์ค‘๊ฐ„์„  ์œ ์ง€ [SMM ๋‚ฉ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋‰ด์Šค]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
LME ๋‚ฉ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ•˜๋ฝ ์••๋ ฅ ์† 0.86% ํ•˜๋ฝ, ์ƒํ•˜์ด ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ ์•ผ๊ฐ„์žฅ ๋™๋ฐ˜ ํ•˜๋ฝํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๋ณผ๋ฆฐ์ € ์ค‘๊ฐ„์„  ์œ ์ง€ [SMM ๋‚ฉ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋‰ด์Šค]
LME ๋‚ฉ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ•˜๋ฝ ์••๋ ฅ ์† 0.86% ํ•˜๋ฝ, ์ƒํ•˜์ด ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ ์•ผ๊ฐ„์žฅ ๋™๋ฐ˜ ํ•˜๋ฝํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๋ณผ๋ฆฐ์ € ์ค‘๊ฐ„์„  ์œ ์ง€ [SMM ๋‚ฉ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋‰ด์Šค]
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Weak Reality Versus Strong Macroeco - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)