【SMM Analysis： Refined Cobalt Prices Continued to Decline in August, Spot Prices Unlikely to Improve in September Due to Surplus Pressure】

In August 2024, the domestic spot refined cobalt average price was 186,000 yuan/mt, down 10% MoM and 30% YoY. In August, due to the persistent oversupply in the market and the loosening of raw material prices, the cost support for refined cobalt weakened, and spot prices continued to decline.

Cost side, in August 2024, the spot average cost of refined cobalt was 164,046 yuan/mt, down 4% MoM from July; the spot average profit was 21,954 yuan/mt, down MoM from July. Due to the low and stagnant raw material prices, the cost of refined cobalt remained at a low level. Spot market, with the increase in new brands and the gradual release of capacity, the oversupply led to a continuous decline in spot prices. Meanwhile, overseas demand showed no significant improvement, and export prices also declined.

Entering September, supply side production maintained an increase, while demand side was mainly driven by fixed delivery volumes, with limited recovery in actual end-user demand. Cost side, cobalt intermediate product prices remained stagnant. From the market situation, due to the low prices of new brands, spot demand was weak, and spot prices might be further dragged down.