August Rare Earth Prices Rose Overall, Can the "Golden September" See Price Hikes Again? [SMM Analysis]

Since late July, rare earth prices have shown a strong upward trend. On one hand, with the increase in orders from magnetic material companies, the demand for rare earth materials has risen simultaneously, directly driving the recovery of rare earth prices. On the other hand, positive news has also boosted market participants' confidence to some extent, pushing rare earth prices higher.

In August, rare earth prices continued to be influenced by the above factors, maintaining a generally strong trend. At the beginning of August, driven by the listing prices of China Northern Rare Earth, market confidence was further boosted. In late August, the MIIT and the Ministry of Natural Resources released the second batch of rare earth mining quotas for 2024, totaling 270,000 mt, up about 6% YoY. Although the growth rate was significantly lower than in previous years, this news still increased the purchase willingness of downstream companies. As a result, holders' quotations became firmer, especially for Pr-Nd, whose prices rose significantly. For example, as of August 29, the price of Pr-Nd oxide had increased by 7.5% compared to August 1.

With the traditional sales peak season "Golden September" approaching, most industry insiders are optimistic about the future trend of rare earth prices. Supply side, the import volume of rare earth ores has significantly decreased, providing some support for the prices of rare earth raw materials. Demand side, downstream magnetic material companies reported that end-user orders are still growing slowly and their acceptance of high-priced products is low, which also affects the purchase willingness of magnetic material companies for high-priced rare earth raw materials. In summary, rare earth prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, but the room for further increases is limited.