Delayed Inflow of Imported Copper, Market Awaits US Employment Data Guidance [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

LME copper opened at $9,180/mt overnight, initially declining to a low of $9,148.5/mt, then rebounding to a high of $9,217.5/mt by the end of the session, closing at $9,217.5/mt, down 0.37%. Trading volume reached 13,000 lots, and open interest was 280,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2410 contract opened at 73,500 yuan/mt, fluctuated widely during the session, hitting a low of 73,400 yuan/mt, and then climbed to a high of 73,820 yuan/mt, finally closing at 73,810 yuan/mt, up 0.01%. Trading volume reached 28,000 lots, and open interest was 166,000 lots. On the macro side, as the market reduced expectations for a significant rate cut by the US Fed, it awaited the release of this week's employment data. The US dollar index hit a two-week high, putting pressure on copper prices. Although the PMI of Eurozone countries overall rebounded, it remained below the expansion threshold. Amid demand concerns, copper prices were weak overnight. On the fundamentals side, copper prices remained weak entering September. However, driven by the peak season, consumption showed some improvement, while arrivals decreased, leading to delays in the inflow of imported copper, which may become evident by the end of this week or early next week. As of Monday, September 2, SMM copper stocks in major regions fell sharply by 14,500 mt to 264,600 mt compared to last Thursday, continuing the drop trend. However, total stocks were still 167,900 mt higher YoY compared to 96,700 mt last year. In summary, with narrowed expectations for a Fed rate cut and the domestic Caixin Manufacturing PMI rising above the expansion threshold, the market is awaiting guidance from US inflation and employment data. Copper prices are expected to remain low before the data release.