US Dollar Index Rose, Oil Prices Were Under Pressure, Copper Prices Declined Last Friday Night [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $9,337.5/mt, with the initial focus slightly rising to a high of $9,355/mt. It then fell throughout the session, hitting a low at $9,225/mt at the end of the session, and finally closed at $9,251.5/mt, a decline of 0.22%. Trading volume reached 17,000 lots, and open interest reached 283,000 lots. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2410 contract opened higher at 74,220 yuan/mt, with the initial focus declining and fluctuating widely. It fell throughout the session, hitting a low at 73,650 yuan/mt at the end of the session, and finally closed at 73,820 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.26%. Trading volume reached 42,000 lots, and open interest reached 166,000 lots. On the macro front, US July PCE data was basically in line with expectations, not supporting a significant 50 basis point rate cut by the US Fed, leading to a rise in the US dollar index. Additionally, according to six OPEC+ sources, OPEC+ may gradually increase oil production starting in October, and Libya is also expected to resume production as early as October. However, a survey showed that China's oil demand was weaker than expected, and global inventories remained high, putting pressure on oil prices. Under the pressure of the rising US dollar index and the decline in oil prices, copper prices fell last Friday night. On the fundamental side, entering the first trading day of September, there are expectations of a traditional peak season in terms of consumption. With the copper price correction, premiums are expected to continue to rise. Additionally, downstream restocking last weekend suggests that inventory is likely to continue to decline this week. Overall, with optimistic consumption expectations, copper prices are expected to have some support.