Fed Rate Cut Signal Spurs US Bond Yield Drop, Narrows China-US Spread, Boosts Offshore RMB

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Aug 30, 2024 15:30
[SMM Analysis] In terms of macroeconomics this week, Fed Chairman Powell's speech on Friday evening basically confirmed an interest rate cut in September. Affected by this, the US Treasury bond yields fell to 3.79% on that night, and the US dollar index also dropped to around 100.6. The decline in US Treasury bond yields has led to a rapid narrowing of the China-US interest rate spread recently, with the 10-year China-US Treasury bond spread narrowing to about 170 basis points, attracting a large amount of overseas assets to flow back, pushing the offshore RMB exchange rate to break through 7.09 once on Thursday.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
์ž‰์ดน ์ธํ„ฐ๋‚ด์…”๋„, SMM์˜ '2026 ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ 2์ฐจ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฐ์—… ๋ถ„ํฌ ์ง€๋„' ์ œ์ž‘ ์ง€์›
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๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์ž‰์ดน ์ธํ„ฐ๋‚ด์…”๋„, SMM์˜ '2026 ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ 2์ฐจ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฐ์—… ๋ถ„ํฌ ์ง€๋„' ์ œ์ž‘ ์ง€์›
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37๋ถ„ ์ „
๋ฏธ๋“œ๋‚˜์ดํŠธ ์„ , ์ž ๋น„์•„ ๋ค๋ฐ” ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘์ƒ 2๋‹จ๊ณ„ ํƒ์‚ฌ ์ฐฉ์ˆ˜
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฏธ๋“œ๋‚˜์ดํŠธ ์„ , ์ž ๋น„์•„ ๋ค๋ฐ” ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘์ƒ 2๋‹จ๊ณ„ ํƒ์‚ฌ ์ฐฉ์ˆ˜
๋ฏธ๋“œ๋‚˜์ดํŠธ ์„ , ์ž ๋น„์•„ ๋ค๋ฐ” ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘์ƒ 2๋‹จ๊ณ„ ํƒ์‚ฌ ์ฐฉ์ˆ˜
๋ฏธ๋“œ๋‚˜์ดํŠธ ์„  ๋งˆ์ด๋‹์€ ์ž ๋น„์•„์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์ž์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ 100% ์†Œ์œ ํ•œ ๋ค๋ธŒ์™€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘์ƒ์—์„œ 2๋‹จ๊ณ„ ํƒ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ด‘๋ฒ”์œ„ํ•œ ์ฒด๊ณ„์  ์‹œ์ถ”์—์„œ ๊ณ ํ’ˆ์œ„ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ตฌ์—ญ์„ ์‹๋ณ„ํ•˜๊ณ  ํ™•์žฅํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ํ•œ ๋ณด๋‹ค ํ‘œ์ ํ™”๋œ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ์œผ๋กœ ์ „ํ™˜ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋‹จ๊ณ„์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ณ ํ•ด์ƒ๋„ ์ง€์ƒ ์ž๋ ฅ ํƒ์‚ฌ, ์œ ๋„ ๋ถ„๊ทน ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ ํƒ์‚ฌ, ํ† ์–‘ ์ง€๊ตฌํ™”ํ•™ ํƒ์‚ฌ ๋ฐ ๋‹ค์ด์•„๋ชฌ๋“œ ์‹œ์ถ”๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉํ•˜๋Š” ๋™์‹œ์—, ์•Œ๋ ค์ง„ ๊ด‘ํ™” ํšŒ๋ž‘์˜ ์ž ์žฌ์  ์—ฐ์žฅ๋ถ€์™€ ๋™์ชฝ ๋ฐ ์„œ์ชฝ์—์„œ ์ƒˆ๋กœ ํ™•์ธ๋œ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ์‹œํ—˜ํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋‹ค. ์ด ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ์€ 1๋‹จ๊ณ„์—์„œ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋œ ์•ฝ 7๋งŒ 5์ฒœ ๋ฏธํ„ฐ์˜ ์‹œ์ถ”๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๋ฏธ๋“œ๋‚˜์ดํŠธ ์„ ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด ์ด ์‹œ์ถ”๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ฃผ์š” ๋‚จ๋ถ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ ํšŒ๋ž‘์„ ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐœ์˜ ๊ณ ํ’ˆ์œ„ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘ํ™” ๊ตฌ์—ญ์ด ํ™•์ธ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. 1๋‹จ๊ณ„ ์‹œ์ถ”๋Š” ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ค‘์ด๋ฉฐ 2026๋…„ 3๋ถ„๊ธฐ ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„๋ฃŒ๋  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๊ณ , ํ˜„์žฌ ์‹œ์ถ”๋Š” ๋ถ๋ถ€ ๋ธ”๋ก์œผ๋กœ ์ด๋™ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ 11.5km ๊ธธ์ด์˜ ๋ค๋ธŒ์™€ ํšŒ๋ž‘์„ ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ๊ณ ํ’ˆ์œ„ ๊ด‘ํ™” ๊ตฌ์—ญ์„ ์‹œํ—˜ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋” ๋„“์€ ๊ฐ„๊ฒฉ์˜ ์‹œ์ถ”๋ฅผ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๋“œ๋‚˜์ดํŠธ ์„ ์€ ๋” ๋„“์€ ๋ค๋ธŒ์™€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด ์•ฝ 20km์— ๋‹ฌํ•˜๋Š” ํ† ์–‘ ๋‚ด ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ด์ƒ๋Œ€์™€ ๊ด€๋ จ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ํ™•์žฅ๋œ ๊ณ ํ•ด์ƒ๋„ ์ž๋ ฅ ํƒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ํ˜„์žฌ ์ „์ฒด ์ด์ƒ๋Œ€์— ๊ฑธ์ณ ํ™•๋Œ€ ์ ์šฉ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋กœ 19.1 ๋ผ์ธ-km์˜ ์œ ๋„ ๋ถ„๊ทน ํƒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ค‘์ด๋‹ค. ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ์ž๋ ฅ ํƒ์‚ฌ ์ž‘์—…์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ฃผ์š” ๋ค๋ธŒ์™€ ํšŒ๋ž‘์—์„œ ๋™์ชฝ์œผ๋กœ ์•ฝ 1.0~1.2km ๋–จ์–ด์ง„ ๊ณณ์—์„œ ์ด์ „์— ์‹œํ—˜๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๋‘ ๊ฐœ์˜ ํ‘œ์ ์ด ์ด๋ฏธ ํ™•์ธ๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋“ค์€ ๊ณ ํ’ˆ์œ„ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘ํ™”์™€ ๊ด€๋ จ๋œ ์ง€์—ญ๊ณผ ์œ ์‚ฌํ•œ ์ž๋ ฅ ํŠน์„ฑ์„ ๋ณด์ธ๋‹ค. 2๋‹จ๊ณ„ ์ฐฉ์ˆ˜๋Š” ๋ค๋ธŒ์™€์˜ ๊ด‘์—ญ์  ๊ทœ๋ชจ์™€ ์ง€์งˆํ•™์  ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฅผ ์ •์˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์—์„œ ๋” ๋†’์€ ์šฐ์„ ์ˆœ์œ„์˜ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํ‘œ์ ์„ ์„ ๋ณ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‹œ์ถ”ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ „ํ™˜ํ–ˆ์Œ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ํƒ์‚ฌ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์— ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ ์•„์ง ๊ด‘๋ฌผ ์ž์›๋Ÿ‰์ด๋‚˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ํ”„๋กœํ•„์„ ํ™•๋ฆฝํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ด‘๋ฒ”์œ„ํ•œ 1๋‹จ๊ณ„ ์‹œ์ถ”์™€ ์ƒˆ๋กœ ํ™•์ธ๋œ ์ง€๊ตฌ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌํ•™์  ํ‘œ์ ์˜ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉ์€ ํƒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง„ํ–‰๋จ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋ฏธ๋“œ๋‚˜์ดํŠธ ์„ ์ด ๋ค๋ธŒ์™€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๊ทœ๋ชจ, ์—ฐ์†์„ฑ ๋ฐ ํ’ˆ์œ„ ๋ถ„ํฌ๋ฅผ ๋” ์ž˜ ์ •์˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ๋„์›€์ด ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
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๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ•˜๋ฝ์„ธ ๋ฉˆ์ถ”๊ณ  ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ; ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ํ™œ์šฉ ๊ธฐ์—… ์ ๊ทน ๋งค์ž… [SMM ์žฌ์ƒ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
51๋ถ„ ์ „
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ•˜๋ฝ์„ธ ๋ฉˆ์ถ”๊ณ  ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ; ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ํ™œ์šฉ ๊ธฐ์—… ์ ๊ทน ๋งค์ž… [SMM ์žฌ์ƒ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ•˜๋ฝ์„ธ ๋ฉˆ์ถ”๊ณ  ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ; ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ํ™œ์šฉ ๊ธฐ์—… ์ ๊ทน ๋งค์ž… [SMM ์žฌ์ƒ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ•˜๋ฝ์„ธ ๋ฉˆ์ถ”๊ณ  ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ; ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ํ™œ์šฉ ๊ธฐ์—… ์ ๊ทน ๋งค์ž… [SMM ์žฌ์ƒ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
51๋ถ„ ์ „
[SMM Analysis] In terms of macroeconomics this week, Fed Chairman Powe - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)