Alumina Market Shifts: Arbitrage Opportunities Spark High-Price Deals, Driving Short-Term Price Volatility

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Aug 26, 2024 08:49
[SMM Early Morning Commentary on Alumina: Arbitrage Opportunities Open Up, Market Sees High-Price Deals, Alumina Spot Prices Likely to Fluctuate at High Levels in the Short Term] As some new alumina production capacities have commenced feeding and some alumina production capacities in various provinces have resumed operations, the fundamental outlook for alumina is gradually shifting towards a relatively balanced supply and demand. However, the recent surge in alumina futures prices has opened up arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot markets, leading to an increase in demand for delivery products. This has resulted in some high-price deals in the market, driving up the SMM alumina index price...

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
์™„ํŽ‘์ž๋™์ฐจ, 2026๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋งค์ถœ ๋ฐ ์ด์ต ๊ฐ์†Œ ๋ณด๊ณ , ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„/๋งˆ๊ทธ๋„ค์Š˜ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ์— ์ฃผ๋ ฅ
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๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์™„ํŽ‘์ž๋™์ฐจ, 2026๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋งค์ถœ ๋ฐ ์ด์ต ๊ฐ์†Œ ๋ณด๊ณ , ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„/๋งˆ๊ทธ๋„ค์Š˜ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ์— ์ฃผ๋ ฅ
์™„ํŽ‘์ž๋™์ฐจ, 2026๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋งค์ถœ ๋ฐ ์ด์ต ๊ฐ์†Œ ๋ณด๊ณ , ์ง€์†๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„/๋งˆ๊ทธ๋„ค์Š˜ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ์— ์ฃผ๋ ฅ
8์›” 25์ผ, ์™„ํŽ‘์˜คํ† ํœ ์€ 2026๋…„ ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ๋ฅผ ๊ณต์‹œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. 2026๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ ์ด ์˜์—…์ˆ˜์ต์€ 74์–ต 8,100๋งŒ ์œ„์•ˆ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 0.18% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๋ชจํšŒ์‚ฌ ๊ท€์† ์ˆœ์ด์ต์€ 4์–ต 1,800๋งŒ ์œ„์•ˆ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 16.46% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ ๊ฒฝ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ธˆ์† ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ ์ œํ’ˆ์€ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„/๋งˆ๊ทธ๋„ค์Š˜ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ์— ์ค‘์ ์„ ๋‘๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ์ค‘ ๊ฒฝ๋Ÿ‰ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ํœ ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์€ 4,400๋งŒ ๊ฐœ ์ด์ƒ์œผ๋กœ, ์ž๋™์ฐจ ๋ฐ ์˜คํ† ๋ฐ”์ด์šฉ ๊ณ ๊ธ‰ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ํœ ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ, ์ œ์กฐ, ํŒ๋งค ๋ฐ ์• ํ”„ํ„ฐ์„œ๋น„์Šค์— ์ฃผ๋ ฅํ•˜์—ฌ ํ•ด๋‹น ์„ธ๋ถ„ ์‹œ์žฅ์—์„œ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์„ ๋‘ ์ž๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ํ™•๋ณดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณด๊ณ  ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ €ํƒ„์†Œ ์นœํ™˜๊ฒฝ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๊ณผ ๋…น์ƒ‰ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์˜ ์ข…ํ•ฉ์ ์ธ ํ™œ์šฉ์„ ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ถ”์ง„ํ•˜์—ฌ, ํ™”๋ ฅ ๋ฐœ์ „ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„์„ ์ˆ˜๋ ฅ ๋ฐœ์ „ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€์ฒดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žฌ์ƒ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์‚ฌ์šฉ์„ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋‚˜๊ฐ”๋‹ค.
16๋ถ„ ์ „
์•ˆ์ˆœ, ์‹ ๊ทœ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์Šน์ธ
16๋ถ„ ์ „
์•ˆ์ˆœ, ์‹ ๊ทœ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์Šน์ธ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์•ˆ์ˆœ, ์‹ ๊ทœ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์Šน์ธ
์•ˆ์ˆœ, ์‹ ๊ทœ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์Šน์ธ
์ตœ๊ทผ ์•ˆ์ˆœ์‹œ ์ƒํƒœํ™˜๊ฒฝ๊ตญ์€ ์—ฐ์‚ฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์„ ์žฌ 4๋งŒ 2์ฒœ ํ†ค ๋ฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์„  ์žฌ๊ถŒ์ทจยท์ œ๋ฆฝยท์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๋ธ”๋ก ์ฃผ์กฐ 4๋งŒ ํ†ค ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์Šน์ธ ํ›„ ๊ณต๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฑด์„ค ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ํ–ฅํ‰๊ฐ€ ์Šน์ธ ์ ˆ์ฐจ์˜ ๊ด€๋ จ ๊ทœ์ •์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์‹ฌ์‚ฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ์•ˆ์ˆœ์‹œ ์ƒํƒœํ™˜๊ฒฝ๊ตญ์€ ์—ฐ์‚ฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์„ ์žฌ 4๋งŒ 2์ฒœ ํ†ค ๋ฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์„  ์žฌ๊ถŒ์ทจยท์ œ๋ฆฝยท์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๋ธ”๋ก ์ฃผ์กฐ 4๋งŒ ํ†ค ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์Šน์ธ ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ๋‚ด๋ ธ๋‹ค. ์ด์— ์Šน์ธ ๊ฒฐ์ • ์‚ฌํ•ญ์„ ๋Œ€์ค‘์—๊ฒŒ ๊ณต๊ณ ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๊ณต๊ณ  ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์€ 2026๋…„ 8์›” 24์ผ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2026๋…„ 8์›” 30์ผ๊นŒ์ง€(7์ผ๊ฐ„)์ด๋‹ค. ํ•ด๋‹น ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” ๊ตฌ์ด์ €์šฐ์„ฑ ์•ˆ์ˆœ์‹œ ์‹œ์Šˆ๊ตฌ ์ฐจ์ด๊ด€์ง„ ์นญ์‚ฐ๊ณต์—…๋‹จ์ง€์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์•ˆ์ˆœ ์ค‘ํƒ€์ด ๋งˆ์˜ค์ฌ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ œ์กฐ ์œ ํ•œ๊ณต์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฑด์„คํ•˜๋Š” ์‹ ๊ทœ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์ด๋‹ค. ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์˜ ์ฃผ์š” ๊ฑด์„ค ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ๋‹ค์Œ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ์กด ์ค‘ํƒ€์ด ์‹ ๋ณด ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์œ ํ•œ๊ณต์‚ฌ์˜ ๊ณต์žฅ์„ ์ž„๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๊ฑด์ถ• ๋ฉด์ ์€ 5,560ใŽก์ด๋‹ค. ์ฃผ์š” ๊ฑด์„ค ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์—ฐ์‚ฐ 4๋งŒ 2์ฒœ ํ†ค ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์„ ์žฌ ๋ฐ 4๋งŒ ํ†ค ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์„  ์žฌ๊ถŒ์ทจยท์ œ๋ฆฝยท์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๋ธ”๋ก ์ฃผ์กฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋ผ์ธ 1๊ฐœ๋ฅผ ๊ฑด์„คํ•˜๊ณ , ๊ด€๋ จ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋ผ์ธ ์„ค๋น„ ๋ฐ ์žฅ๋น„๋ฅผ ์„ค์น˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค.
16๋ถ„ ์ „
์„ ์ „ ์‘จ์‹ฑ, 2026๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋งค์ถœ 28.81% ์„ฑ์žฅ ๋ณด๊ณ , ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํŒ๋งค ํ˜ธ์กฐ๊ฐ€ ๊ฒฌ์ธ
17๋ถ„ ์ „
์„ ์ „ ์‘จ์‹ฑ, 2026๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋งค์ถœ 28.81% ์„ฑ์žฅ ๋ณด๊ณ , ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํŒ๋งค ํ˜ธ์กฐ๊ฐ€ ๊ฒฌ์ธ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์„ ์ „ ์‘จ์‹ฑ, 2026๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋งค์ถœ 28.81% ์„ฑ์žฅ ๋ณด๊ณ , ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํŒ๋งค ํ˜ธ์กฐ๊ฐ€ ๊ฒฌ์ธ
์„ ์ „ ์‘จ์‹ฑ, 2026๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋งค์ถœ 28.81% ์„ฑ์žฅ ๋ณด๊ณ , ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํŒ๋งค ํ˜ธ์กฐ๊ฐ€ ๊ฒฌ์ธ
8์›” 26์ผ, ์„ ์ „ ์‘จ์‹ฑ์€ 2026๋…„ ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ๋ฅผ ๊ณต์‹œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. 2026๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ ์ด ์˜์—…์ˆ˜์ต์€ 19์–ต 3,100๋งŒ ์œ„์•ˆ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 28.81% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๋ชจํšŒ์‚ฌ ๊ท€์† ์ˆœ์ด์ต์€ 2,001๋งŒ 5,500์œ„์•ˆ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ 2,236๋งŒ 3,200์œ„์•ˆ ์ ์ž์—์„œ ํ‘์ž ์ „ํ™˜ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณด๊ณ  ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ ํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๊ฒฐ์ •๋ฆฝ ๋ฏธ์„ธํ™”์ œ ํŒ๋งค๋Ÿ‰์€ 2๋งŒ 3,326.4ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 10.72% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๊ณ , ํŒ๋งค ์ˆ˜์ต์€ 6์–ต 2,782๋งŒ 3,600์œ„์•ˆ์œผ๋กœ 24.88% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด ๋งค์ถœ์ด์ด์ต์€ 3,718๋งŒ 6,800์œ„์•ˆ์œผ๋กœ 15.22% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณด๊ณ  ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ์‹ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๋ฐ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ €์žฅ ์‚ฐ์—…์˜ ๊ฒฌ์กฐํ•œ ์ˆ˜์š”์— ํž˜์ž…์–ด ํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„๋ฐ• ์†Œ์žฌ ์‚ฌ์—…์€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๊ณผ ํŒ๋งค๊ฐ€ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ ๊พธ์ค€ํžˆ ์„ฑ์žฅํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ฃผ์กฐ ์••์—ฐ ๋ฐ• ์†Œ์žฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ 4,221.07ํ†ค(์ „๋Ÿ‰ ์™ธ๋ถ€ ๊ณ ๊ฐ์—๊ฒŒ ์ง์ ‘ ํŒ๋งค), ํŒ๋งค๋Ÿ‰์€ 4,008.47ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋งค ์ˆ˜์ต 8,988๋งŒ 1,700์œ„์•ˆ, ์ด ๋งค์ถœ์ด์ด์ต 125๋งŒ 9,300์œ„์•ˆ์„ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ƒ‰๊ฐ„ ์••์—ฐ ๋ฐ• ์†Œ์žฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰์€ 4๋งŒ 2,792ํ†ค, ํŒ๋งค๋Ÿ‰์€ 4๋งŒ 21.51ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋งค ์ˆ˜์ต 7์–ต 9,935๋งŒ 5,600์œ„์•ˆ, ์ด ๋งค์ถœ์ด์ด์ต 3,620๋งŒ 7,000์œ„์•ˆ์„ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
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[SMM Early Morning Commentary on Alumina: Arbitrage Opportunities Open - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)