Pig iron production is expected to rebound, and iron ore prices are anticipated to fluctuate at low levels this week

Last week, iron ore prices plummeted. Fundamentals show that, according to SMM shipping data, global iron ore shipments slightly decreased by 2.8% last week. With improved weather, the volume of iron ore arriving at ports significantly increased by over 33%. Demand side, steel mills' blast furnace pig iron average daily output decreased by 25,100 mt, and iron ore demand continued to decline. Additionally, the apparent demand for major steel products remained on a downward trend, HRC inventory continued to accumulate, and anti-dumping investigations by major exporting countries further dampened market sentiment. These factors led to a sharp drop in iron ore futures prices to new lows. As for port prices, the spot price of PB fines in Shandong region fell by 30 yuan/mt MoM.

Looking ahead to this week, global iron ore shipments are expected to see a slight increase. The volume of arrivals still has room to grow, but not significantly. last week, raw material prices fell more than steel prices, slightly restoring steel mill profits, and the number of blast furnace maintenance is not expected to increase further; additionally, some blast furnaces that underwent short-term maintenance may resume production, and blast furnace pig iron production may slightly rebound, providing support for iron ore prices. However, given that end-user demand remains weak with no signs of improvement, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels this week.