SMM Insight: Rebar Standards Transition - A Double-Edged Sword for Market: Risks, Opportunities, and Price Dynamics

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Aug 16, 2024 14:00
[SMM Hotspot: Switch Between Old and New National Standards for Rebar - A Risk or an Opportunity? Are There Any Opportunities to Come?] Looking back at this year's market, it has shown an inverted N-shaped trend with the price center of gravity continuing to decline. The market entered its off-season in June, and the July meeting brought no positive signals. Coupled with the switch between old and new standards, which sparked market concerns, prices fell rapidly. The lowest point on the chart fell below the lowest point in 2020, gradually approaching the low point in 2018. If it breaks through, there will be huge room for further decline...

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
์žฅ์‹œ์„ฑ์˜ ํ•œ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์ด ๋ชฐ๋ฆฌ๋ธŒ๋ด ์ •๊ด‘ 96ํ†ค์„ ๋‚™์ฐฐ๊ฐ€ 5,430์œ„์•ˆ/mtu์— ํŒ๋งคํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
23๋ถ„ ์ „
์žฅ์‹œ์„ฑ์˜ ํ•œ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์ด ๋ชฐ๋ฆฌ๋ธŒ๋ด ์ •๊ด‘ 96ํ†ค์„ ๋‚™์ฐฐ๊ฐ€ 5,430์œ„์•ˆ/mtu์— ํŒ๋งคํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์žฅ์‹œ์„ฑ์˜ ํ•œ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์ด ๋ชฐ๋ฆฌ๋ธŒ๋ด ์ •๊ด‘ 96ํ†ค์„ ๋‚™์ฐฐ๊ฐ€ 5,430์œ„์•ˆ/mtu์— ํŒ๋งคํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
์žฅ์‹œ์„ฑ์˜ ํ•œ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์ด ๋ชฐ๋ฆฌ๋ธŒ๋ด ์ •๊ด‘ 96ํ†ค์„ ๋‚™์ฐฐ๊ฐ€ 5,430์œ„์•ˆ/mtu์— ํŒ๋งคํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
[๋ชฐ๋ฆฌ๋ธŒ๋ด ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ] SMM 9์›” 3์ผ: ์žฅ์‹œ์„ฑ ์†Œ์žฌ ํ•œ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์—์„œ 45%-50% ๋ชฐ๋ฆฌ๋ธŒ๋ด ์ •๊ด‘(ํ‰๊ท  ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ 1.99%, ํ‰๊ท  ์ธ 0.081%) 96ํ†ค์„ 5,430์œ„์•ˆ/mtu์— ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ž…์ฐฐ ํ•˜ํ•œ๊ฐ€๋Š” 5,410์œ„์•ˆ/mtu์˜€๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ 40%-45% ๋ชฐ๋ฆฌ๋ธŒ๋ด ์ •๊ด‘(ํ‰๊ท  ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ 4.09%, ํ‰๊ท  ์ธ 0.085%) 544ํ†ค์„ 5,395์œ„์•ˆ/mtu์— ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ž…์ฐฐ ํ•˜ํ•œ๊ฐ€๋Š” 5,380์œ„์•ˆ/mtu์˜€๋‹ค. ์ƒ๊ธฐ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋Š” ํ˜„๊ธˆ 35%์™€ ์ธ์ˆ˜ 65%๋กœ ๊ฒฐ์ œ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค.
23๋ถ„ ์ „
[SMM ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰] ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๊ฐœ์„ , ์‹ค์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์— ๋ชป ๋ฏธ์ณ
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰] ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๊ฐœ์„ , ์‹ค์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์— ๋ชป ๋ฏธ์ณ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[SMM ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰] ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๊ฐœ์„ , ์‹ค์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์— ๋ชป ๋ฏธ์ณ
[SMM ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰] ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ ๊ฐœ์„ , ์‹ค์ˆ˜์š” ํšŒ๋ณต์€ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์— ๋ชป ๋ฏธ์ณ
SMM ํ†ต๊ณ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์ด๋ฒˆ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ์˜ ๊ณต์žฅ ์žฌ๊ณ ์™€ ์‚ฌํšŒ ์žฌ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ •๋„์˜ ์ฐจ์ด๋Š” ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜ ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์ด์žฌ๊ณ ๋Š” 807๋งŒ 4,000ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ, ์ „์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ 11๋งŒ 8,500ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œ(์ „์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ -1.45%)ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
1์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ ์กฐ์‚ฌ] ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ์†Œํญ ์†Œํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ ์กฐ์‚ฌ] ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ์†Œํญ ์†Œํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[SMM ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ ์กฐ์‚ฌ] ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ์†Œํญ ์†Œํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
[SMM ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ ์กฐ์‚ฌ] ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ฑด์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์žฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ์†Œํญ ์†Œํญ ํ™•๋Œ€
SMM ์กฐ์‚ฌ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์ด ์‚ฌํšŒ ์žฌ๊ณ ์˜ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„ ์†๋„๊ฐ€ ์†Œํญ ๋นจ๋ผ์กŒ๋‹ค. 2026๋…„ 9์›” 3์ผ ๊ธฐ์ค€, SMM ๊ฑด์ถ•์ž์žฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋Š” 545๋งŒ 8์ฒœ ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 7๋งŒ 8,900ํ†ค ๊ฐ์†Œํ•ด 1.43% ์ค„์—ˆ๋‹ค.
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[SMM Hotspot: Switch Between Old and New National Standards for Rebar - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)