Forecast: Ferrous metals series hit new lows again; steel prices may continue to fluctuate and bottom out in the short term

Last week, the ferrous metals series hit new lows again, with finished steel futures reaching their lowest point in nearly four years; iron ore prices remained weak and stable, while coke entered its third round of price cuts. On the news front, at the beginning of the week, the market entered a recessionary phase with minimal impact on the ferrous metals series; in the latter half of the week, the supply and demand data for the five major materials performed poorly, indicating that demand recovery still has a long way to go, and the ferrous metals series hit new lows across the board. In the spot market, end-user demand was weak this week, and many traders were actively selling off their inventories.

In the short term, steel mills continue to incur losses, and there is a possibility of increased maintenance in the future, which may slightly weaken cost support. According to the latest production survey by SMM, the output of finished steel in August is expected to decrease, but market sentiment remains pessimistic, with downstream orders under pressure. In a scenario of weak supply and demand, steel prices are expected to continue their bottoming-out trend in the short term, although the futures market has been oversold last week, suggesting a potential rebound opportunity this week.