SMM Analysis On China July LMO Production And August Forecast  

According to SMM data, China's LMO output in July 2024 was 9,294 mt, down 4.10% MoM and 7.73% YoY. The survey indicated that LMO production in July continued the downward trend from June. The main reasons were the significant and prolonged drop in lithium carbonate spot prices, leading to a decline in LMO market prices. Additionally, intense market competition resulted in relatively chaotic pricing and price suppression, further squeezing producers' profit margins and contributing to heavy market pessimism. Out of caution, producers significantly reduced their production and shipment volumes. Demand side, it remained the traditional off-season, and downstream companies were still in the destocking phase, with few new orders. Due to the combined impact of raw materials and demand, overall LMO output declined.

It is expected that in August, the LMO overcapacity situation will remain difficult to alleviate, with continued market competition. Mid-to-late August may see a slight increase in downstream procurement demand, potentially driving a small rebound in scheduled production, but the overall market environment will remain sluggish. Therefore, it is estimated that the total output in August will be around 9,897 mt, down 6.49% MoM and 23.08% YoY.