SMM analysis on China June PV module output and July forecast

According to SMM, China's PV module production in June was approximately 47.7GW, down 5.1GW MoM (-9.6% MoM) but up 25.6% YoY. In H1, the production totalled approximately 278.8GW, up 59.8GW YoY (+27.3% YoY).

In June, the PV module market was highly competitive. The domestic market was mainly supported by centralised procurement demand, while the overseas market saw a slowdown in shipments. With overall weak demand, inventory pressure continued to rise.

Entering July, domestic centralised procurement orders are concentrated for delivery. Some module producers have raised their scheduled production, especially HJT module producers, while other producers mostly maintained stable operating rate. Small plants, with fewer orders, mostly took on outsourcing orders to maintain a low operating rate. However, the risk of inventory accumulation still exists, limiting the increase in scheduled production. Therefore, the scheduled production of PV modules in July is expected to reach 48.3GW, up 0.6GW MoM (+1.2% MoM).