SMM Morning Comment For Copper Market July 8

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Jul 8, 2024 09:33
์ถœ์ฒ˜: SMM
Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $9,940.5/mt, rose initially to a high of $10,000/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of $9,929.5/mt, rebounded at the end of the trading session, and finally closed at $9,970/mt, with a gain of 0.85%. Trading volume reached 24,000 lots, and open interest reached 328,000 lots.

Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $9,940.5/mt, rose initially to a high of $10,000/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of $9,929.5/mt, rebounded at the end of the trading session, and finally closed at $9,970/mt, with a gain of 0.85%. Trading volume reached 24,000 lots, and open interest reached 328,000 lots.
Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2408 contract opened at 80,650 yuan/mt, initially touched a high of 80,800 yuan/mt, then fell to a low of 80,390 yuan/mt, consolidated at the end of the trading session, and finally closed at 80,640 yuan/mt, with a gain of 0.59%. Trading volume reached 41,000 lots, and open interest reached 199,000 lots.

Macro side, the US non-farm payrolls report further highlighted the cooling of the labour market, enhancing expectations of a US Fed rate cut in the coming months, and the US dollar index fell, which was bullish for copper prices. Fundamentals side, the rise in copper prices triggered market sentiment of fear of high prices, leading some downstream producers to increase their restocking, but as it is currently the off-season for consumption, the purchasing volume cannot sustain an increase. The continuous rise in copper prices is expected to hit market demand. Copper prices are expected to maintain high-level wide fluctuations.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
Russiaโ€™s Udokan Starts Cathode Production, Targets 150,000 Tpy of Combined Copper Output
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Russiaโ€™s Udokan Starts Cathode Production, Targets 150,000 Tpy of Combined Copper Output
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
Russiaโ€™s Udokan Starts Cathode Production, Targets 150,000 Tpy of Combined Copper Output
Russiaโ€™s Udokan Starts Cathode Production, Targets 150,000 Tpy of Combined Copper Output
According to foreign media reports, Russiaโ€™s Udokan Copper began producing copper cathodes at its hydrometallurgical plant in Zabaykalsky Krai in the Russian Far East on September 2, 2026. The cathodes have a copper purity of 99.99%. The project began producing copper concentrate in September 2023, and the commissioning of cathode production completes its integrated value chain from ore mining to refined copper. Cathode production was originally scheduled to begin in Q2 2024. However, a fire in December 2023 damaged part of the cathode facility, while Western sanctions complicated the replacement of the affected equipment. The projectโ€™s first phase is designed to produce up to 150,000 tonnes of contained copper annually in the form of copper concentrate and cathodes, mainly for Russiaโ€™s domestic market and other Asian markets. The 150,000-tonne figure represents combined contained copper output and should not be interpreted as standalone cathode capacity. Udokanโ€™s new cathode production will increase refined copper supply from Russiaโ€™s Far East, although near-term volumes will depend on the pace of ramp-up, logistics and sanctions-related constraints. The company previously planned to raise total copper output to around 550,000 tonnes per year after the second phase comes online, but the project timetable still requires monitoring.
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์ค‘๊ตญ 2์ฐจ ๋™ ์–‘๊ทน ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ
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์ค‘๊ตญ 2์ฐจ ๋™ ์–‘๊ทน ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์ค‘๊ตญ 2์ฐจ ๋™ ์–‘๊ทน ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ
์ค‘๊ตญ 2์ฐจ ๋™ ์–‘๊ทน ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ
[SMM ๋™ ์–‘๊ทน ์‹œ์žฅ] ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ, ์ด์ „ ํƒœํ’์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฐ›์•˜๋˜ ์ผ๋ถ€ ๋™ ์–‘๊ทน ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด๋“ค์ด ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ ์žฌ๊ฐœํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 8์›” 28์ผ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 9์›” 3์ผ๊นŒ์ง€ SMM์˜ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์žฌ์ƒ ๋™ ์–‘๊ทนํŒ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด ์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ์€ ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 5.75%ํฌ์ธํŠธ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑํ•œ 50.40%๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค์Œ ์ฃผ์—๋Š” ์ „์ฃผ ๋Œ€๋น„ 3.69%ํฌ์ธํŠธ ์ƒ์Šนํ•œ 54.09%์— ์ด๋ฅผ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
7๋ถ„ ์ „
๋™์ œ๋ จ ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์€ ์›์ž์žฌ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๋‚ฎ๊ฒŒ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด, ์™„์ œํ’ˆ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„์—๋Š” ์–ด๋ ค์›€์„ ๊ฒช๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
9๋ถ„ ์ „
๋™์ œ๋ จ ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์€ ์›์ž์žฌ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๋‚ฎ๊ฒŒ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด, ์™„์ œํ’ˆ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„์—๋Š” ์–ด๋ ค์›€์„ ๊ฒช๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋™์ œ๋ จ ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์€ ์›์ž์žฌ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๋‚ฎ๊ฒŒ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด, ์™„์ œํ’ˆ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„์—๋Š” ์–ด๋ ค์›€์„ ๊ฒช๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
๋™์ œ๋ จ ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์€ ์›์ž์žฌ ์žฌ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๋‚ฎ๊ฒŒ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด, ์™„์ œํ’ˆ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„์—๋Š” ์–ด๋ ค์›€์„ ๊ฒช๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค
[SMM ํ™ฉ๋™ ๋นŒ๋ › ์†๋ณด] SMM์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ํ˜„์žฌ ์žฌ์ƒ ํ™ฉ๋™์˜ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋ถ€์กฑ ์ƒํ™ฉ์€ ๋ณ€ํ•จ์ด ์—†์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์›์ž์žฌ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์€ ๋†’์€ ์ˆ˜์ค€์—์„œ ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์ด๊ณ , ๊ฐ€๊ณต ๋งˆ์ง„์€ ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ์••๋ฐ•์„ ๋ฐ›๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ํ‘œ๋ณธ ๊ธฐ์—…์˜ ์›์ž์žฌ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์ผ์ˆ˜๋Š” 3.52์ผ๋กœ ๋‚ฎ์€ ์ˆ˜์ค€์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ํ•˜๋ฅ˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค์ž๋“ค์€ ์ฃผ๋กœ ์ฆ‰์‹œ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ์— ๊ทธ์ณค๊ณ , ์ ๊ทน์ ์ธ ์žฌ๊ณ  ๋ณด์ถฉ ์˜์ง€๊ฐ€ ์•ฝํ•ด ์™„์ œํ’ˆ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œ์ง„์ด ๋‹ค์‹œ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ์ง€์—ฐ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ํ‘œ๋ณธ ๊ธฐ์—…์˜ ์™„์ œํ’ˆ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์ผ์ˆ˜๋Š” 5.11์ผ๋กœ ์ง‘๊ณ„๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค.
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