Market purchases were sluggish amid weak demand, NPI prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term [NPI Daily Review]

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Jul 3, 2024 10:26
์ถœ์ฒ˜: SMM
On July 2, the price of SMM 8%-12% high-grade NPI averaged 965.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), down 1 yuan/mtu from the previous working day.

On July 2, the price of SMM 8%-12% high-grade NPI averaged 965.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), down 1 yuan/mtu from the previous working day. Supply side, domestically, NPI prices fluctuated downward, and market expectations for the future gradually weakened. It is expected that domestic NPI production in July may decline. In Indonesia, current NPI prices have dropped notably. Although high-grade nickel matte prices declined, there was still a drive for production conversion from NPI to high-grade nickel matte. With the new production lines in Indonesia, Indonesian NPI production is expected to increase in July, but the growth will be limited. Demand side, a steel mill in South China saw a new low in NPI transaction prices recently, causing the market focus to fall again. Entering the off-season, stainless steel mills may cut production amid weak expectations. Therefore, they adopted a wait-and-see stance towards procurement. In summary, in the short term, NPI supply will remain stable, but prices are expected to be under pressure due to weak demand.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
ใ€SMM ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œใ€‘์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„, DHE SDA ์™„ํ™” ์‹œํ–‰ ์„ธ๋ถ€์‚ฌํ•ญ ํ™•์ •
11์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
ใ€SMM ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œใ€‘์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„, DHE SDA ์™„ํ™” ์‹œํ–‰ ์„ธ๋ถ€์‚ฌํ•ญ ํ™•์ •
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ใ€SMM ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œใ€‘์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„, DHE SDA ์™„ํ™” ์‹œํ–‰ ์„ธ๋ถ€์‚ฌํ•ญ ํ™•์ •
ใ€SMM ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œใ€‘์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„, DHE SDA ์™„ํ™” ์‹œํ–‰ ์„ธ๋ถ€์‚ฌํ•ญ ํ™•์ •
์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„๋Š” 2026๋…„ 9์›” 1์ผ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์‹ ๊ณ ์„œ(PPE)์— ์ ์šฉ๋˜๋Š” ์ •๋ถ€๊ทœ์ •(PP) ์ œ21/2026ํ˜ธ ์ œ18A์กฐ์˜ ์‹œํ–‰ ์„ธ๋ถ€์‚ฌํ•ญ์„ ํ™•์ •ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ๊ฒ€ํ†  ๋Œ€์ƒ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์—…์ฒด 537๊ณณ ์ค‘ ์•ฝ 12%์— ํ•ด๋‹นํ•˜๋Š” 64๊ฐœ ๊ด‘์—… ์ˆ˜์ถœ์—…์ฒด๊ฐ€ ํ˜„์žฌ ์ž๊ฒฉ ์š”๊ฑด์„ ์ถฉ์กฑํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒŒ์•…ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ž๊ฒฉ ์š”๊ฑด์„ ๊ฐ–์ถ”๋ ค๋ฉด ์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„ ๋ฒ•์ธ(PT)์œผ๋กœ ์„ค๋ฆฝ๋˜์–ด ๊ด‘์—… ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์—์„œ ํ™œ๋™ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ง€์ • ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์ธ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ, ์ค‘๊ตญ, ํ™์ฝฉ, ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ๋˜๋Š” ์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค ๊ตญ์ ์˜ ์ฃผ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์ตœ์†Œ 10% ์ด์ƒ์˜ ์ง€๋ถ„์„ ๋ณด์œ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ž๊ฒฉ ๋ชฉ๋ก์€ ๋งค์›” ๊ฒ€ํ† ๋œ๋‹ค. ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ๋˜ํ•œ ์ œ18A์กฐ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์ฒœ์—ฐ์ž์› ์ˆ˜์ถœ์™ธํ™”(DHE SDA) ์˜ˆ์น˜๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด 15๊ฐœ ์™ธ๊ตญํ™˜์€ํ–‰์„ ์ง€์ •ํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ๊ตญ์˜์€ํ–‰ 5๊ณณ๊ณผ ๋น„๊ตญ์˜์€ํ–‰ 10๊ณณ์ด ํฌํ•จ๋œ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ž๊ฒฉ์„ ๊ฐ–์ถ˜ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์—…์ฒด๋Š” ์ง€์ •๋œ ๋น„๊ตญ์˜์€ํ–‰์— ์˜๋ฌด์ ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์น˜ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š” DHE SDA๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์น˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด ์ˆ˜์ถœ๋Œ€๊ธˆ ๊ด€๋ฆฌ์˜ ์œ ์—ฐ์„ฑ์ด ํ™•๋Œ€๋œ๋‹ค.
11์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ: ์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(SHFE), ๋‹ค๋ก„์ƒํ’ˆ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(DCE) ์‹œ์žฅ ๋™ํ–ฅ (9์›” 3์ผ)
12์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ: ์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(SHFE), ๋‹ค๋ก„์ƒํ’ˆ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(DCE) ์‹œ์žฅ ๋™ํ–ฅ (9์›” 3์ผ)
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ: ์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(SHFE), ๋‹ค๋ก„์ƒํ’ˆ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(DCE) ์‹œ์žฅ ๋™ํ–ฅ (9์›” 3์ผ)
๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ: ์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(SHFE), ๋‹ค๋ก„์ƒํ’ˆ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(DCE) ์‹œ์žฅ ๋™ํ–ฅ (9์›” 3์ผ)
๋‹ค์Œ ํ‘œ๋Š” 2026๋…„ 9์›” 3์ผ SHFE์™€ DCE์˜ ์ฒ ๊ธˆ์† ๋ฐ ๋น„์ฒ ๊ธˆ์† ๋™ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์—๋„ ๊ณ ํ’ˆ์œ„ NPI ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ์•ฝํ•œ ํŽ€๋”๋ฉ˜ํ„ธ๊ณผ ๋‚ฎ์€ ์œ ๋™์„ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์–ด๋ ค์›€ ๊ฒช์–ด
13์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์—๋„ ๊ณ ํ’ˆ์œ„ NPI ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ์•ฝํ•œ ํŽ€๋”๋ฉ˜ํ„ธ๊ณผ ๋‚ฎ์€ ์œ ๋™์„ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์–ด๋ ค์›€ ๊ฒช์–ด
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์—๋„ ๊ณ ํ’ˆ์œ„ NPI ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ์•ฝํ•œ ํŽ€๋”๋ฉ˜ํ„ธ๊ณผ ๋‚ฎ์€ ์œ ๋™์„ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์–ด๋ ค์›€ ๊ฒช์–ด
๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์—๋„ ๊ณ ํ’ˆ์œ„ NPI ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ์•ฝํ•œ ํŽ€๋”๋ฉ˜ํ„ธ๊ณผ ๋‚ฎ์€ ์œ ๋™์„ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์–ด๋ ค์›€ ๊ฒช์–ด
[SMM ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œ] 9์›” 3์ผ ๋‰ด์Šค: ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑํ–ˆ์Œ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ , ๊ณ ์ˆœ๋„ NPI ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ์•ฝํ•œ ํŽ€๋”๋ฉ˜ํ„ธ์„ ๋ฐ˜์ „์‹œํ‚ค๊ธฐ ์–ด๋ ต๊ณ  ์‹œ์žฅ ์œ ๋™์„ฑ์ด ๋ถ€์กฑํ•˜๋‹ค. ์ฒ ๊ฐ•์—…์ฒด๋“ค์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ˆ˜์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ˆ˜์ค€์„ ๋‚ฎ์€ ์ˆ˜์ค€์œผ๋กœ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์—…์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ์˜คํผ์™€ ์ฒ ๊ฐ•์—…์ฒด์˜ ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ์  ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ˆ˜์ค€ ์‚ฌ์ด์—๋Š” ์ƒ๋‹นํ•œ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์Šคํ”„๋ ˆ๋“œ๊ฐ€ ๋‚จ์•„ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ณ ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ๋‹จ์œ„ ํ™”๋ฌผ์˜ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์€ ํ˜„์ €ํžˆ ์ถ•์†Œ๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ๊ธฐ๊ด€๋“ค์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์„ ๋ฌผ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์•ฝ์„ธ ์ „๋ง์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค.
13์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
Market purchases were sluggish amid weak demand, NPI prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term [NPI Daily Review] - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)