SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Jun 20)

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2408 aluminum contract opened at 20,485 yuan/mt, reached a high of 20,585 yuan/mt, a low of 20,485 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,535 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.29%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,495/mt, reached a high of $2,520/mt, a low of $2,484/mt, and closed at $2,489.5/mt, down $6/mt, a decrease of 0.24%.

Summary: On the macro level, the US Fed's stance on rate cuts has been wavering, and the expectation of rate cuts within the year has weakened. Escalating regional conflicts have provided support for the prices of safe-haven assets like gold and major commodities like crude oil. On the fundamentals, the arrival of the consumption off-season together with increasing overseas market frictions has led to insufficient orders for aluminum processing enterprises and a reduction in operating rates, heightening market concerns about downstream aluminum demand. After the withdrawal of long funds, short-term aluminum prices pulled back to a stage low.