SMM Analysis Of China Alumina Production In May And Forecast For June

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in May (31 days) was 6.989 million mt, with an average daily output increasing by 10,400 mt/day from April to 233,000 mt/day. The total output in May increased by 4.64% MoM and 4.59% YoY. As of the end of May, China's existing alumina capacity was 100 million mt, with an operating capacity of 82.29 million mt, and an operating rate of 82.3%. From January to May 2024, domestic metallurgical-grade alumina production totaled 33.451 million mt, up 3.42% YoY.

By region, in Shanxi, the operating rate in May was 75.8%, up 2.9% from April, mainly due to a medium-sized alumina refinery in Shanxi reducing production in March due to insufficient ore supply, and gradually resuming normal production in May, involving an annual capacity of 550,000 mt. Additionally, an alumina refinery in Lvliang resumed full production by the end of May as domestic captive mines resumed, involving an annual capacity of 450,000 mt. In Henan, the operating rate in May was 66.1%, up 3% from the previous month, mainly due to a local alumina refinery resumed a production line in early May as ore supply pressure eased, involving an annual capacity of about 500,000 mt. In Guizhou, the operating rate in May decreased by 2.6% from April to 80.8%, mainly due to an alumina refinery undergoing equipment maintenance in early May, affecting a capacity of about 400,000 mt, and gradually resuming production, with the operating capacity increasing to around 900,000 mt by the end of May. In Hebei, alumina refineries further contributed to the increase in alumina production in May, with the operating rate rising by 7% from April to 95.7%. In Guangxi, the operating rate in May rose slightly by 2.6% from April to 88.4%, mainly due to an alumina refinery in Guangxi resuming production to 500,000 mt in May after a suspension in early April due to ore supply issues. In Shandong, the operating rate in May was relatively stable, rising slightly by 0.7% from April to 93.2%.

June forecast: According to the SMM survey, some bauxite mines in Shanxi and Henan resumed production in May. Some mines in Shanxi reported that they are actively promoting production resumption. An alumina refinery in Shanxi restored its operating capacity to full production by the end of May. An alumina refinery in Henan increased its production by 300,000 mt in late May due to the supplementation of some imported ores and plans to further increase production by 200,000 mt to full capacity. An alumina refinery in Shandong completed its roasting maintenance in late May, and its operating capacity is expected to increase. In Guizhou, about 300,000 mt of capacity is still pending for resumption. Therefore, domestic alumina production in June is expected to further increase. However, due to the large-scale suspension of bauxite mines in Shanxi and the lack of specific resumption plans for open-pit bauxite mines in Sanmenxia, Henan, the short-term bauxite production in Shanxi and Henan may not see substantial increases. The increase in alumina supply in Shanxi and Henan is limited. SMM expects the average daily output in June 2024 to be 229,500 mt/day, with a total operating capacity of around 83.76 million mt, up 6.6% YoY.