Interpreting Global Nickel and Indonesia Stainless Steel Industries: Supply-Demand Dynamics and Outlook"Stainless Steel Industries

1.Global Nickel Market Overview

- Global primary nickel supply and demand grew at similar rates (6.6% and 6.7% annualized) from 2016 to 2021, leading to a persistent shortage. - Starting in 2022, global primary nickel supply shifted to a surplus, with anticipated supply growth (8.0% CAGR) outpacing demand growth (7.1% CAGR) from 2022 to 2027. - Growth in supply is driven by refined nickel, NPI, and nickel sulfate sectors, while demand is fueled by stainless steel, batteries, and alloys.

2.Demand Trends in Nickel Market

- Stainless steel remains the largest consumer of nickel but has seen its demand share decline from 75% in 2016 to 67% presently, due to rapid growth in battery demand. - Battery demand has surged, growing from 2% in 2016 to a projected 13.4% by 2027, driven by electric vehicle market expansion. - Stainless steel demand is expected to accelerate from 3.9% (2016-2021) to 6.2% (2022-2027), while battery sector growth, although slowing, remains robust at 6.9% annually.

3. Regional Nuances in Stainless Steel Production

- China heavily relies on NPI for stainless steel production, with its share projected to increase from 67% in 2022 to 74% by 2027. - Indonesia's stainless steel manufacturers primarily use NPI due to abundant resources and cost-effective production.

4. **Indonesian Nickel Industry Details**

- Indonesia holds the largest share (43%) of global nickel resources and is projected to supply over 85% of global nickel intermediates by 2027. - Production of nickel intermediates (MHP and high-nickel matte) is expected to increase significantly, with MHP supply predominantly from self-owned mines. - High-nickel matte production is expanding to meet demand for pure nickel and nickel sulfate, with a preference for external ore sourcing.

5. **Indonesian Stainless Steel Industry Growth**

- Indonesia is the world's second-largest stainless steel producer, focusing on export (42% to China in 2023) primarily of #300 series stainless steel. - Production capacity is expected to exceed 7 million metric tons by 2027, driven by competitive costs and resource abundance.

In conclusion, Indonesia's nickel and stainless steel industries are poised for continued growth, with significant implications for global supply dynamics and market trends. For further questions or communication, please contact Shirley Wang. ：wangcong@smm.cn

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