According to SMM's continuous research, the hope for the resumption of production at the JinYu bauxite mine in the north is slim at the beginning of the year, and the supply of domestic mines in the north is severely tight. Some alumina factories have supplemented imports to maintain production. However, due to the relatively high production costs of alumina factories and limited profit margins, it is difficult for them to accept a significant increase in ore prices. The price of domestic mines in JinYu has remained stable this week. In the southwest region, the spot supply of ore is also relatively tight. Some alumina factories have plans to shut down before the Spring Festival, but there have been no significant changes in supply and demand, and contradictions have not become prominent. This week, the price of bauxite remains stable.
Regarding imported ore, according to SMM, Guinean and Australian imported ores are mainly focused on ensuring long-term supply, and prices have remained stable. CIF prices for Guinean bauxite are maintained at around $70/ton, while CIF prices for Australian bauxite are maintained at around $56/ton. On December 18, a huge explosion occurred at the Conakry oil depot of the Guinea Petroleum Company. Then, fuel sales were banned, and tank trucks were prohibited from leaving Conakry to inland area of Guinea. Guinean government requisitioned part of the company's oil depots, and negotiated with neighboring countries to import some oil to meet urgent needs. This news triggered market concerns about the impact on diesel supply and bauxite production and shipments. However, according to SMM research, this news did not significantly affect bauxite supply in the short term. Judging from export volume of bauxite from Guinea ports, Guinea’s bauxite shipment is still within the normal fluctuation range.
As of Jan 26th, the bauxite with an aluminum-silicon ratio of 5.0 and an alumina content of 60% in Shanxi is trading at around 500-530 yuan/ton ex-factory without VAT; in Henan, bauxite with an aluminum-silicon ratio of 5.0 and an alumina content of 60% is trading at around 500-540 yuan/ton ex-factory without VAT; in Guizhou, bauxite with an aluminum-silicon ratio of 5.5 and an alumina content of 58% is trading at around 350-410 yuan/ton ex-factory without VAT; in Guangxi, bauxite with an aluminum-silicon ratio of 6.0 and an alumina content of 53% is trading at around 320-335 yuan/ton ex-factory without VAT.
