China December Alumina Output and Forecast for January

SHANGHAI, Jan 9 (SMM) –SMM data showed that China’s metallurgical-grade alumina output stood at 6.795 million mt in December (31 days), and the daily average output was 219,200 mt/day, down 5,600 mt/day MoM. The total output in December was up by 0.7% MoM and 5.7% YoY. As of the end of December, the installed alumina capacity in China was 100 million mt, the operating capacity stood at 80.04million mt, and the average operating rate stood at 80.0%. In 2023, the domestic alumina output totaled 79.804 million mt, a YoY increase of 2.7%.
In terms of regions, in Shanxi, the province's operating rate in December was 69.2%, a sharp MoM decrease of 9.2%. Due to the upgrade of mine inspection and control policies in Shanxi in December, the ore supply tightness have intensified, affecting production. Therefore, the operating rate declined sharply MoM. In Henan, the operating rate was 61.9% in December, down 1.6% MoM. In December, some alumina refineries in the Sanmenxia maintained production cut since December. Some alumina refineries limited roasting capacity due to local heavy pollution weather warnings, and later resumed production in early January as the warnings were lifted. In Guizhou, the production of a few alumina refineries are still curbed by ore supply and cost issues. In addition, some alumina refineries resumed part of their capacity that was affected by production line maintenance in December. Therefore, the operating rate of Guizhou rose by 2.1% MoM to 84.5% in December. In Hebei, the operating rate in December increased by 6.2% MoM to 87.5%. This was mainly due to the maintenance of a large alumina refinery in November caused by insufficient steam supply due to equipment failure in the thermal power plant, involving annual production capacity of 2.4 million mt. The company had resumed production before December. In Guangxi, the operating rate in December was the same as November at 84.9%. In Shandong, the province's operating rate in December was the same as November at 93.6%. In late December, a large alumina refinery in Shandong had limited roasting capacity due to local heavy pollution weather warnings. Later, as the warnings were lifted, the company had resumed production in early January.
Forecast for January：According to SMM research, it is difficult for mines in Shanxi and Henan to resume production soon. The local ore supply shortage will continue to limit part of the capacity, and the overall operating rate may remain at a low level; In Guangxi, refineries that were affected by ore supply issues in December may find it difficult to return to full production shortly. The roasting capacities in Shandong and Henan that were previosuly subject to environmental protection policies have now resumed production. However, influenced by heavy pollution weather innorth China, alumina refineries may face a new round of production controls. SMM estimates that the alumina operating capacity in China will be 220,500 mt/day in January 2024, and the total operating capacity will be around 80.50 million mt, up by 7.3% YoY.