SMM Morning Comment For Aluminium Market On December 28

게시됨: Dec 28, 2023 09:52

출처: SMM

저장

On the macro front, the U.S. dollar index continued to decline.

SHANGHAI, December 28 (SMM) – On the macro front, the U.S. dollar index continued to decline. The annual rate of the U.S. core PCE price index in November was lower than expected, and the inflation index cooled down more than expected. In the third quarter, the U.S. real GDP was revised downward, and consumption fell short of expectations, which further strengthened the view that the Federal Reserve will turn to interest rate cut. This, coupled with the recent complex situation in the Red Sea that affects transportation costs, has brought support to aluminum prices. Domestic macro environment remained positive. After major state-owned banks lowered deposit rates, joint-stock banks have also lowered deposit rates. China's main goals this year are expected to be achieved. In terms of fundamentals, Qinghai Province has implemented power load management due to earthquake relief, which could potentially affect the aluminum supply. Demand tends to weaken. As the traditional off-season has arrived, and companies are beginning to increase their cash flow at the end of the year, the willingness to restock has declined. It is expected that the destocking of aluminum social inventory will slow down, but the inventory will still remain low. SMM predicts that the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots will remain low in the near future, and the aluminum prices will remain firm in the short term due to upstream influences.

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