Guojin Securities: Focus on Trading Opportunities Under Seasonal Supply and Demand Mismatch in Electrolytic Aluminum

Guojin Securities research report pointed out that domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is about to peak, and trading opportunities under seasonal supply and demand mismatch should be focused on. The growth in consumption in emerging sectors such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles will offset the declining demand in real estate, maintaining a tight balance in electrolytic aluminum supply and demand under supply constraints. It is expected that the aluminum price will remain at the same level as in 2023 in 2024, and the price center is expected to further increase in 2025. Seasonal power restrictions and production cuts in Yunnan may lead to structural shortages of downstream consumption in the peak season, providing strong momentum for the upward movement of aluminum prices in the peak season.