SMM Analysis: Rare Earth Prices And Trading Volumes Both Fell In November, Except Dysprosium Oxide, Will Pr-Nd Downturn Come To A Halt In December?

In the rare earth industry's off-season, November prices varied, showing both ups and downs. Weak demand led to a general price and production drop, except for a slight dysprosium oxide price rise. Light rare earth prices mostly fell, while heavy ones dipped early November, steadied, then rose late November due to bulk buys, especially dysprosium and terbium oxides. December's market influencers are yet uncertain.

Pr-Nd oxide prices dropped 5.67% and China's production down 1.5%MoM In November,

In the light rare earth market, Pr-Nd oxide’s average price was 511,500 yuan/mt on October 31, and it declined to 482,500 yuan/mt by November 30, down 29,000 yuan/mt (5.67%)MoM.

Pr-Nd oxide output: China's Pr-Nd oxide output in November was 6,228 mt, down 1.5% MoM. The decrease was mainly contributed by Guangxi and Jiangxi.

According to SMM research, with sustained price erosions and few inquiries, some separation plants slightly lowered output, and Pr-Nd oxide output in Guangxi dropped by 25%. In Jiangxi, shutdown of some separation plants for maintenance in November fed into a 6% decrease in local Pr-Nd oxide production. Meanwhile, a few separation plants were rushing to meet deadlines towards the end of the year, and gently increased production in November. Among them, Pr-Nd oxide production in Guangdong hiked by 18.5%.

Dysprosium oxide prices rise by 1.7% and China's production down 0.8% MoM In November

In the heavy rare earths market, dysprosium oxide's average price was 2,645 yuan/kg on October 31. Moving into late November, dysprosium oxide price deviated from its previous stability and began an overall upward trend, with the average price reaching 2,690 yuan/kg on November 30, up 45 yuan/kg(1.7%) MoM.

Dysprosium oxide output: China’s dysprosium oxide production in November was 216 mt, down 0.8% MoM. The dip was mainly reflected in Jiangxi.

According to SMM, shutdown of some separation plants for maintenance lowered dysprosium oxide production by 18% in Jiangxi. However, news of Myanmar's customs closure resurfaced in November, some rare earth ore traders imported goods into China ahead of the closure. Therefore, with sufficient ion-absorption rare earth ore, output medium and heavy rare earth increased in some areas. Among them, dysprosium oxide output in Guangdong and Guangxi in November was up 20% MoM and 15% MoM.

Terbium oxide's price fell 2.46% and China's production dropped 7% in November.

In the heavy rare earths market, terbium oxide's average price of terbium oxide was 8,125 yuan/kg as of October 31. Entering late November, terbium oxide price began to rebound, reaching an average price of 7,925 yuan/kg by November 30. However, the rebound in late November was insufficient to offset the earlier decline, resulting in an overall decrease of 200 yuan/kg for the month, down 2.46% MoM.

Terbium oxide output: China’s terbium oxide output in November was 41.5 mt, down 7% MoM. The dip was mainly reflected in Guangxi and Jiangxi.

According to SMM research, in November few actual transactions and year-end shutdown of separation plants for maintenance made a big dent in terbium oxide output of separation plants in Guangxi and Jiangxi by 9% and 27% respectively.

Market Outlook: Watch for Myanmar border news and year-end metal inventory restocks.

SMM research shows most magnetic material enterprises face poor November orders due to the off-season. Large enterprises with steady clients keep 80% order levels, while some small enterprises operating rates below 50%. Order scarcity cuts inquiries at metal factories. magnetic material enterprises buy Pr-Nd alloy as needed amid weak prices. Despite late November price upticks in dysprosium and terbium due to raw material costs, buyer resistance to high prices persists.

Rare earth prices, particularly for Pr-Nd, the current focus is on when the prices, especially for praseodymium and neodymium, will cease to decline in December. With factories running through Spring Festival, it is important to monitor their year-end stock replenishment activities and the listed prices of Northern Rare Earth at the start of January.

Additionally, it is advisable to pay attention to the Myanmar's border closure affecting rare earths since mid-November, with halted material transport and rushed exports to China. Analysts expect disruptions until at least next year's Q2, impacting Chinese imports.

Myanmar is a principal source of China's unlisted rare earth oxides, supplying over 80% of China's unlisted rare earth oxides. The operational status of mines in Myanmar has a direct impact on the total import volume of China's unlisted rare earth oxides. Post-2023 pandemic easing, the import volume of unlisted rare earth oxides into China are rebounding toward average historical levels.

Customs data shows China's unlisted rare earth oxide imports hit 36,267 mt from January to October 2023, up 287% YoY, with 34,814.33 mt (96%) from Myanmar.

Customs data shows China's November 2023 rare earth imports at 14,315.1 mt, up 125.5% YoY, with January-November totals at 159,471.8 mt, up 44.7% YoY. Exports for November were 4,205.8 mt, totaling 48,867.7 mt for eleven months, up 10% YoY. Myanmar's share is expected to remain large in the eleven-month period.