[SMM analysis] China’s September real estate data is released, what is the market situation of disk-locked scaffolding?

Disk-locked scaffolding is a product that must be used in real estate and infrastructure construction. Therefore, the industry form of disk-locked scaffolding is closely related to the situation of real estate and infrastructure construction. From the first quarter to the third quarter, real estate data did not improve significantly. The National Bureau of Statistics released the latest data. In September 2023, the newly started construction area of real estate was 721.2341 million square meters, a cumulative decrease of 23.4%; the completed real estate area was 487.0463 million square meters, a cumulative increase of 19.8%.

At present, due to the impact of the implosion of real estate giants, the overall real estate market is relatively panicked, and the market is not clear about the future development prospects of real estate. The current operating rates of disk-locked scaffold manufacturers can only reach about 30% to 40%. As winter is approaching, environmental protection requirements in Hebei and Tianjin are becoming increasingly severe, and enterprise production is once again restricted. According to research, project construction in the north will be suspended in winter, and demand will decline again. The number of orders for disk-locked scaffold enterprises may be reduced.

According to the survey, the current zinc price fluctuates around 21,000 yuan/ton. The current cost of zinc ingots for disk-locked scaffold has increased. Due to rising zinc prices, the current cost of zinc ingots is around 670 yuan/ton, labor costs are around 100-125 yuan/ton, pharmaceutical costs are around 7-8 yuan/ton, and rental costs are around 100-120 yuan/ton. In winter, natural gas costs will increase in the north. It is estimated that energy costs will be about 40-50 yuan/ton, and other costs (including machine depreciation and environmental protection equipment, etc.) will be around 300-400 yuan/ton. The current zinc slag recycling is poor. The profits of disk-locked scaffold companies are about 60-70 yuan/ton. In the long term, the processing fee of disk-locked scaffold may drop by about 50 yuan/ton. Profits have been reduced again and again, and the enthusiasm of enterprises for production has dropped to freezing point. Many companies have gradually halted the production of disk-locked scaffold, which will affect the later real estate and infrastructure construction. The progress of the project is relatively bearish.

Taken together, although China is vigorously boosting the real estate market, the use of disk-locked scaffold in buildings and the renovation of old communities is relatively small. The market expects that the construction of new projects and new infrastructure will inject more vitality into disk-locked scaffold in the future.