SMM Morning Comment For Nickel Market On November 2

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Nov 2, 2023 09:53
์ถœ์ฒ˜: SMM
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract opened at 143470 yuan/mt, and closed at 140640 yuan/mt, down 2890 yuan/mt.

SHANGHAI, November 2 (SMM) –

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract opened at 143470 yuan/mt, and closed at 140640 yuan/mt, down 2890 yuan/mt. Trading volume rose 25309 lots, and open interest increased 8859 lots. The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the conclusion of its policy meeting. From a fundamentals perspective, the trend of pure nickel inventory accumulation remains unchanged, and downstream demand has not yet improved. Yesterday’s spot market transactions were still weak. Nickel price is expected to be move rangebound.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
[SMM ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋ฏธํŒ… ์š”์•ฝ] ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ฐ์ค€์˜ 9์›” ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ํ™•๋ฅ  66.9%๋กœ ์ƒ์Šน, SHFE ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ์ตœ๋‹ค ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ์ข…๋ชฉ ์žฅ ์ดˆ๋ฐ˜ ํ•˜๋ฝ์„ธ
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[SMM ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋ฏธํŒ… ์š”์•ฝ] ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ฐ์ค€์˜ 9์›” ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ํ™•๋ฅ  66.9%๋กœ ์ƒ์Šน, SHFE ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ์ตœ๋‹ค ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ์ข…๋ชฉ ์žฅ ์ดˆ๋ฐ˜ ํ•˜๋ฝ์„ธ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[SMM ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋ฏธํŒ… ์š”์•ฝ] ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ฐ์ค€์˜ 9์›” ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ํ™•๋ฅ  66.9%๋กœ ์ƒ์Šน, SHFE ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ์ตœ๋‹ค ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ์ข…๋ชฉ ์žฅ ์ดˆ๋ฐ˜ ํ•˜๋ฝ์„ธ
[SMM ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ๋ชจ๋‹ ๋ฏธํŒ… ์š”์•ฝ] ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ฐ์ค€์˜ 9์›” ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ํ™•๋ฅ  66.9%๋กœ ์ƒ์Šน, SHFE ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ์ตœ๋‹ค ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ์ข…๋ชฉ ์žฅ ์ดˆ๋ฐ˜ ํ•˜๋ฝ์„ธ
[9.3 ์˜ค์ „ ํšŒ์˜ ๋…ธํŠธ] ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ฐ์ค€์— ๋งคํŒŒ์  ๋ชฉ์†Œ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋˜๋ฉฐ 9์›” ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด 66.9%๋กœ ์ƒ์Šนํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฐ” ์—ฐ์ค€ ์ด์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜์ด ๋” ์™„ํ™”๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ์„ ์ง€์ง€ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ์•ž์„œ ์›Œ์‹œ์˜ ๋งคํŒŒ์  ์‹ ํ˜ธ์™€ ๋งž๋ฌผ๋ ค, ์‹œ์žฅ์€ ์ด์ œ 9์›” 11์ผ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋  8์›” CPI์— ์ฃผ๋ชฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” 9์›” 15~16์ผ FOMC ํšŒ์˜ ์ „ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋‹ค. ๋ฐ”ํด๋ ˆ์ด์ฆˆ๋Š” ์—ฐ์ค€์ด 9์›”๊ณผ 12์›”์— ๊ฐ๊ฐ ํ•œ ์ฐจ๋ก€์”ฉ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ธ์ƒํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋งํ•œ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํ™œ๋ฐœํžˆ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋œ SHFE ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ 2610 ๊ณ„์•ฝ์€ ์žฅ ์ดˆ๋ฐ˜ ์•ฝ์„ธ ํ๋ฆ„์„ ๋ณด์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜ค์ „ ์žฅ์„ ํ†ค๋‹น 126,690์œ„์•ˆ์— ๋งˆ๊ฐํ•ด 0.84% ํ•˜๋ฝํ–ˆ๋‹ค. 9์›” ์—ฐ์ค€ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ํ™•๋ฅ ์ด 66.9%๋กœ ์ƒ์Šนํ•˜๊ณ , ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์ฑ„๊ถŒ ๋งค๋„์„ธ์™€ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๊ฐ€ ๋ณตํ•ฉ์ ์ธ ์—ญํ’์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ์ž์ฒด์˜ ๋†’์€ ์žฌ๊ณ ์™€ ์•ฝํ•œ ์ˆ˜์š”๋„ ๋ณ€ํ•จ์—†๋‹ค. ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ SHFE ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ์ตœ๋‹ค ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์€ ํ†ค๋‹น 125,000~131,000์œ„์•ˆ ๋ฒ”์œ„์—์„œ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋œ๋‹ค.
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ใ€SMM ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œใ€‘์—˜๋‹ˆ๋‡จ ๋‚ ์”จ๋กœ IMIP ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ ์ฆ๊ฐ€
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ใ€SMM ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œใ€‘์—˜๋‹ˆ๋‡จ ๋‚ ์”จ๋กœ IMIP ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ ์ฆ๊ฐ€
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
ใ€SMM ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œใ€‘์—˜๋‹ˆ๋‡จ ๋‚ ์”จ๋กœ IMIP ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ ์ฆ๊ฐ€
ใ€SMM ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ํ”Œ๋ž˜์‹œใ€‘์—˜๋‹ˆ๋‡จ ๋‚ ์”จ๋กœ IMIP ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ ์ฆ๊ฐ€
2026๋…„ ์—˜๋‹ˆ๋‡จ ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ๊ณ„์† ๊ฐ•ํ™”๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๊ตญ์ œ ๊ธฐํ›„ ๋ชจ๋‹ˆํ„ฐ๋ง์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด ์ด๋ฒˆ ์—˜๋‹ˆ๋‡จ๋Š” ๊ธฐ๋ก์ƒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ์—˜๋‹ˆ๋‡จ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๊ฐ€ ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ธ๋„๋„ค์‹œ์•„๋Š” ์ด๋ฏธ ์ƒ๋‹นํ•œ ํญ์—ผ๊ณผ ๊ฑด์กฐ ์ƒํƒœ๋ฅผ ๊ฒช๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์—˜๋‹ˆ๋‡จ๋Š” 9์›”์— ์ •์ ์— ์ด๋ฅผ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. SMM์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด ํ˜„์žฌ IMIP์˜ ๋ฌผ ๋ถ€์กฑ์€ ์ฃผ๋กœ ํƒ„์†Œ๊ฐ• ์ƒ์‚ฐ์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—๋Š” ์•„์ง ์˜ํ–ฅ์ด ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๊ฑด์กฐํ•œ ๋‚ ์”จ์™€ ๋ฌผ ๋ถ€์กฑ์ด ์ง€์†๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์‚ฐ์—…์šฉ์ˆ˜ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์••๋ฐ•์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ˆ์ผˆ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๊ฐ์ถ• ์œ„ํ—˜์ด ์ปค์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
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๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ: ์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(SHFE), ๋‹ค๋ก„์ƒํ’ˆ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(DCE) ์‹œ์žฅ ๋™ํ–ฅ (9์›” 2์ผ)
18์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ: ์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(SHFE), ๋‹ค๋ก„์ƒํ’ˆ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(DCE) ์‹œ์žฅ ๋™ํ–ฅ (9์›” 2์ผ)
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ: ์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(SHFE), ๋‹ค๋ก„์ƒํ’ˆ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(DCE) ์‹œ์žฅ ๋™ํ–ฅ (9์›” 2์ผ)
๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ: ์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(SHFE), ๋‹ค๋ก„์ƒํ’ˆ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(DCE) ์‹œ์žฅ ๋™ํ–ฅ (9์›” 2์ผ)
๋‹ค์Œ ํ‘œ๋Š” 2026๋…„ 9์›” 2์ผ ์ƒํ•˜์ด์„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(SHFE)์™€ ๋‹ค๋ก„์ƒํ’ˆ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์†Œ(DCE)์˜ ์ฒ ๊ธˆ์† ๋ฐ ๋น„์ฒ ๊ธˆ์† ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๋™ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
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