SMM Morning Comment For Aluminium Market (Sep 25)

SHANGHAI, Sep 25 (SMM) – Last Friday’s night session, the most-traded SHFE 2311 aluminium contract opened at 19,505 yuan/mt, with its lowest and highest at 19,420 yuan/mt and 19,510 yuan/mt before closing at 19,445 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt or 0.31%. LME aluminium opened at $2,222/mt last Friday and hit a high of $2,250.5/mt before closing at $2,250.5/mt, an increase of $28.5/mt or 1.29%.

From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve announced its September interest rate decision as scheduled and suspended interest rate increases. However, the economic situation in Europe and the United States is poor, and the hawkish Fed's stance suggests that there is still possibility of raising interest rates and maintaining high interest rates. Domestic macro sentiment is stable. The current growth rate of domestic aluminium supply is slowing down, the import window is opening, driving overseas aluminium ingots to flow into China. However, domestic downstream consumption is resilient, and low inventory will also support aluminium prices. SMM expects short-term aluminium price fluctuate at a high level, and will pay attention to domestic aluminium inventories and downstream consumption in the future.