SMM Review of spot Copper concentrate market

As of August 25, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (Weekly) stood at $92.93/mt, $0.42/mt lower than a week earlier. During the week, both inquiries from smelters and quotes from traders dropped, and the market was quiet. The price coefficient of Cu 20% domestic ore stood at 88.5-89.5%.

SMM understood that there was a spot trade of 10,000 mt of seaborne clean ore between a smelter and a trader during the week with TCs in the mid-to-low $90s, scheduled for October. Traded TCs of spot seaborne clean ore scheduled for shipment in October between mines and smelters remained in the high $80s, while those of spot seaborne clean ore scheduled for shipment in November between mines and traders went down to the mid-to-high $70s. Demand for spot cargoes from some Chinese smelters weakened due to the delay in the commissioning of new projects and the resolution of raw material structure issues. These smelters received offers with shipments scheduled in October from traders, including 10,000 mt of copper concentrate from Collahuasi and HVC mine apiece with TCs of $95/mt, 10,000 mt of copper concentrate from Bisha mine with TCs of $100/mt, and 10,000 mt of blended copper concentrate from South America with TCs of $110/mt.

According to SMM survey, the smelting technology upgrade project of a smelter in north-east China, which was originally scheduled to be commissioned before the end of this year, will be postponed to March-April next year, with a planned construction period of about 45 days. There is a high probability that the commissioning of the second phase of a smelter in south China will be delayed until early next year and the maintenance plan for the first phase of the project will also be extended. In India, the 500,000-mt smelting and refining project of the Adani smelter is scheduled to be completed and put into operation in August next year. The project is currently half-completed.

SMM believes that the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index will still have downside room as smelters restock for winter production ahead of negotiations on the annual benchmark TC for long-term contracts. But the downward space is limited. Copper concentrate inventories across seven major ports in China stood at 896,100 mt on August 25, down 36,800 mt from a week earlier.