Overnight Copper Prices Continued To Rise As US ADP Jobs Report Showed the Smallest Increase In Nearly Five Months

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Aug 31, 2023 09:59
์ถœ์ฒ˜: SMM
LME copper opened at $8,421.5/mt and closed with a gain of 0.15% at $8,468/mt overnight.

LME copper opened at $8,421.5/mt and closed with a gain of 0.15% at $8,468/mt overnight. Trading volume stood at 14,000 lots. Open interest stood at 280,000 lots. The most active SHFE 2310 copper contract prices opened at 69570 yuan/mt and finished at 69,640 yuan/mt overnight, up 0.49%, with the low-end of 69430 yuan/mt and the high-end of 69740 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 29,000 lots and open interest stood at 157,000 lots. On the macro front, the U.S. ADP added 177,000 new jobs in August, the smallest increase in five months and less than the expected 195,000.

In addition, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce said he hopes U.S. companies will invest in China. In terms of fundamentals, the price spread between SHFE front-month and next-month copper contract expanded, and the market was optimistic over the market in September. Tight supply in east China pushed up spot quotes. Traders were more enthusiastic about stocking up at low prices and most of the trades occurred among traders.

Copper inventories in south China have fallen for ten consecutive years, and sellers raised prices. However, downstream buying interest was weak at the end of the month, and the supply and demand were both weak. In terms of consumption, at the end of the month, companies were under financial pressure and their purchasing desire was not high. Combined with the impact of high copper prices, the overall demand was weak. In terms of price, U.S. economic data shows that U.S. inflation has been significantly alleviated, which, coupled with optimistic domestic macroeconomic sentiment will keep copper prices at high levels.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์ž…, ๊ด€์„ธ ์šฐ๋ ค ์† 7์›” ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜ ๊ธฐ๋ก
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์ž…, ๊ด€์„ธ ์šฐ๋ ค ์† 7์›” ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜ ๊ธฐ๋ก
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์ž…, ๊ด€์„ธ ์šฐ๋ ค ์† 7์›” ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜ ๊ธฐ๋ก
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์ž…, ๊ด€์„ธ ์šฐ๋ ค ์† 7์›” ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜ ๊ธฐ๋ก
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ƒ๋ฌด๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ๋ชฉ์š”์ผ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•œ ๊ณต์‹ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, 7์›” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ •์ œ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๋ฐ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ ์ˆ˜์ž…๋Ÿ‰์€ 22๋งŒ 5,094ํ†ค์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ž ์žฌ์  ๊ด€์„ธ ์ธ์ƒ์— ๋Œ€๋น„ํ•ด ํŠธ๋ ˆ์ด๋”๋“ค์ด ๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰์˜ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๊ณ„์† ์„ ์ ํ•œ ๋ฐ ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๋ฌด์—ญ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๋ชจ๋‹ˆํ„ฐ๋ง ๊ธฐ๊ด€์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ์ƒ๋ฌด๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ๋ณด๊ณ ํ•œ 7์›” ์ˆ˜์ž…๋Ÿ‰์€ 1990๋…„ ๊ธฐ๋ก ์ง‘๊ณ„ ์ด๋ž˜ ์›”๊ฐ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜๋กœ, ์ „์›” ๋Œ€๋น„ 78%, ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 8% ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ˆ˜์ž… ๊ธ‰์ฆ์€ ์‹œ์žฅ์ด ์ œ์•ˆ๋œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ˆ˜์ž… ๊ด€์„ธ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ช…ํ™•ํ•œ ๋ฐฉ์นจ์„ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฐ€์šด๋ฐ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ƒ๋ฌด๋ถ€๋Š” ์›๋ž˜ 6์›” 30์ผ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋„๋„๋“œ ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์—๊ฒŒ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์—…๋ฐ์ดํŠธ๋œ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ๋ฅผ ์ œ์ถœํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด์—ˆ์œผ๋‚˜, ์ดํ›„ ์•„๋ฌด๋Ÿฐ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ์—†์—ˆ๋‹ค.
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ์˜ˆ-์Šคํ‹ธ์›Œํ„ฐ, ๊ธˆ์† ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ ์† ๋งˆ์šดํŠธ ๋ผ์ด์—˜ ๋ฐ ๋ฒˆ์Šคํ†ค ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์ถ”์ง„
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ์˜ˆ-์Šคํ‹ธ์›Œํ„ฐ, ๊ธˆ์† ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ ์† ๋งˆ์šดํŠธ ๋ผ์ด์—˜ ๋ฐ ๋ฒˆ์Šคํ†ค ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์ถ”์ง„
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ์˜ˆ-์Šคํ‹ธ์›Œํ„ฐ, ๊ธˆ์† ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ ์† ๋งˆ์šดํŠธ ๋ผ์ด์—˜ ๋ฐ ๋ฒˆ์Šคํ†ค ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์ถ”์ง„
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ์˜ˆ-์Šคํ‹ธ์›Œํ„ฐ, ๊ธˆ์† ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๊ฐ•์„ธ ์† ๋งˆ์šดํŠธ ๋ผ์ด์—˜ ๋ฐ ๋ฒˆ์Šคํ†ค ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์ถ”์ง„
๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด ์‹œ๋ฐ”๋…œ-์Šคํ‹ธ์›Œํ„ฐ๋Š” ๊ธˆ์† ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์œผ๋กœ ์žฌ๋ฌด ์ƒํƒœ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐœ์„ ๋จ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ํƒœ์ฆˆ๋ฉ”์ด๋‹ˆ์•„์˜ ๋งˆ์šดํŠธ ๋ผ์ด์—˜ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ-๊ธˆ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์™€ ๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด์˜ ๋ฒˆ์Šคํ†ค ๊ธˆ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋ฅผ ์ถ”์ง„ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ด์‚ฌํšŒ๊ฐ€ ์Šน์ธํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์š”ํ•˜๋„ค์Šค๋ฒ„๊ทธ์— ๋ณธ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๋‘” ์ด ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด๋Š” ํ€ธ์Šคํƒ€์šด ์ธ๊ทผ์˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ ์ธ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์„ ์žฌ๊ฐ€๋™ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด 2026๋…„ ๋งˆ์šดํŠธ ๋ผ์ด์—˜ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์— 750๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ํˆฌ์žํ•  ๊ณ„ํš์ด๋ฉฐ, 3์–ต 4์ฒœ๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” 2029๋…„ ์ฒซ ๊ด‘์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์™„์ „ ๊ฐ€๋™ ์‹œ ์ด ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์€ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ตœ๋Œ€ 2๋งŒ 6์ฒœ ํ†ค, ๊ธˆ 1๋งŒ 6์ฒœ ์˜จ์Šค, ์€ 11๋งŒ 6์ฒœ ์˜จ์Šค๋ฅผ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋œ๋‹ค.
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์—˜๋„๋ผ๋„ ๊ณจ๋“œ์˜ ์„œ์Šค์บ์ฒ˜์›์ฃผ ๋งคํ‚ฌ๋ฒ ๋‚˜ ๋ฒ ์ด ๊ด‘์‚ฐ, ์ƒ์—… ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ž„๋ฐ• ๋ฐ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์  ์ค‘์š”์„ฑ ํ™•๋ณด
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์—˜๋„๋ผ๋„ ๊ณจ๋“œ์˜ ์„œ์Šค์บ์ฒ˜์›์ฃผ ๋งคํ‚ฌ๋ฒ ๋‚˜ ๋ฒ ์ด ๊ด‘์‚ฐ, ์ƒ์—… ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ž„๋ฐ• ๋ฐ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์  ์ค‘์š”์„ฑ ํ™•๋ณด
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์—˜๋„๋ผ๋„ ๊ณจ๋“œ์˜ ์„œ์Šค์บ์ฒ˜์›์ฃผ ๋งคํ‚ฌ๋ฒ ๋‚˜ ๋ฒ ์ด ๊ด‘์‚ฐ, ์ƒ์—… ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ž„๋ฐ• ๋ฐ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์  ์ค‘์š”์„ฑ ํ™•๋ณด
์—˜๋„๋ผ๋„ ๊ณจ๋“œ์˜ ์„œ์Šค์บ์ฒ˜์›์ฃผ ๋งคํ‚ฌ๋ฒ ๋‚˜ ๋ฒ ์ด ๊ด‘์‚ฐ, ์ƒ์—… ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ž„๋ฐ• ๋ฐ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์  ์ค‘์š”์„ฑ ํ™•๋ณด
์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค ์„œ์Šค์บ์ฒ˜์›์ฃผ ๋ถ๋™๋ถ€์˜ ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ-์•„์—ฐ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์ด ์ƒ์—… ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ ์•ž๋‘๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ์ด๋ฅผ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋กœ ์ง€์ •ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ˆ˜์š”์ผ ์ƒˆ์Šค์ปคํˆฐ์—์„œ ์—ด๋ฆฐ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์—…๋ฐ์ดํŠธ์—์„œ ์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด ์—˜๋„๋ผ๋„ ๊ณจ๋“œ๋Š” ์ž์‚ฌ์˜ ๋งคํ‚ฌ๋ฒ ๋‚˜ ๋ฒ ์ด ์ง€ํ•˜ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ์ด 6์›”์— ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ์ •๊ด‘์„, 7์›”์— ์•„์—ฐ ์ •๊ด‘์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์˜ฌํ•ด 3๋ถ„๊ธฐ ๋ง๊นŒ์ง€ ์ƒ์—… ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•  ๊ณ„ํš์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค.
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