SMM Analysis Of Silicon Metal Market

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Aug 24, 2023 10:57
์ถœ์ฒ˜: SMM
There were firm offers for low-grade specifications and high-grade 3303# silicon, leading to strong transaction prices.

SHANGHAI, Aug 24 (SMM) –

Price: There were firm offers for low-grade specifications and high-grade 3303# silicon, leading to strong transaction prices. Most demand from polysilicon enterprise and grinding plants was monitored, while aluminium alloy and DMC factories were in a wait-and-see mood.

Supply: Silicon metal output increased slowly, and supply of low-phosphorus off-grade silicon power remained tight.

Demand: Aluminium alloy: With stable operating rate of primary and secondary aluminium alloys, aluminium alloy producers consumed inventory and refilled silicon metal stocks on a need-to basis.

DMC transaction price of one factory dipped by 200 yuan/mt to 13,200 yuan/mt yesterday. A peak season in September and October is approaching, but organic silicon producers currently saw limited order intakes. Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices remained unaltered. Recently, polysilicon companies sold silicon powder tender, which need to be watched.

Inventory: SMM statistics said that social inventory of silicon metal in Huangpu port, Kunming, and Tianjin port totalled 258,000 mt as of August 18, up 9,000 mt WoW, though a small amount of inventory reduction at a few ordinary warehouses in Tianjin. The inventory build-up was largely monitored in social delivery warehouses.

Export: According to customs data, China silicon metal exports in July 2023 were 47,400 mt, down 1% MoM and down 19% YoY. Exports totalled 335,700 million mt from January to July, down 18% YoY. Import: According to customs data, China silicon metal imports in July 2023 were 50 mt, up 88% MoM, but down 98% YoY. Imports totalled 1,300 mt from January to July, a decrease of 94% YoY.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋ฐฉ๊ธ€๋ผ๋ฐ์‹œ, 5GW ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ์ˆœ๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰ ์˜ฅ์ƒ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘์— kWh๋‹น 0.086๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์š”๊ธˆ์ œ ๋„์ž…]
8๋ถ„ ์ „
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋ฐฉ๊ธ€๋ผ๋ฐ์‹œ, 5GW ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ์ˆœ๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰ ์˜ฅ์ƒ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘์— kWh๋‹น 0.086๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์š”๊ธˆ์ œ ๋„์ž…]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋ฐฉ๊ธ€๋ผ๋ฐ์‹œ, 5GW ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ์ˆœ๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰ ์˜ฅ์ƒ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘์— kWh๋‹น 0.086๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์š”๊ธˆ์ œ ๋„์ž…]
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋ฐฉ๊ธ€๋ผ๋ฐ์‹œ, 5GW ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ์ˆœ๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰ ์˜ฅ์ƒ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘์— kWh๋‹น 0.086๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์š”๊ธˆ์ œ ๋„์ž…]
๋ฐฉ๊ธ€๋ผ๋ฐ์‹œ ์ „๋ ฅ๋ถ€๋Š” ์ž๊ตญ ์ˆœ๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰ ์ œ๋„์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ ๊ฒฉ ์˜ฅ์ƒ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ž‰์—ฌ ์ „๋ ฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด kWh๋‹น 10.50ํƒ€์นด(0.086๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ)์˜ ์š”๊ธˆ์„ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, 2030๋…„ 2์›” 28์ผ๊นŒ์ง€ 3๋…„๊ฐ„ ์œ ํšจํ•˜๋‹ค. ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ์ €์žฅ์žฅ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–์ถ˜ ์˜ฅ์ƒ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๋ฐœ์ „ ๋น„์šฉ์€ kWh๋‹น 8ํƒ€์นด๋กœ ์„ค์ •๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” 20%์˜ ์ด์œค๊ณผ 11.25%์˜ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์„ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. 2027๋…„ 2์›” 28์ผ๊นŒ์ง€ ์„ค์น˜๋˜์–ด 2025๋…„ ์ˆœ๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰ ์ง€์นจ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์ ๊ฒฉํ•œ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์€ ์ธ์„ผํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ ์š”๊ธˆ์„ ๋ฐ›์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ฒ  ์„ฑ์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ์ˆ˜์š” ์‹œ 3GW๋ฅผ ์ดˆ๊ณผํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ์ผ ์ „๋ ฅ ๋ถ€์กฑ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋‚ด๋…„ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„๊นŒ์ง€ ์ˆœ๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ตœ์†Œ 5GW์˜ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์„ ์„ค์น˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค.
8๋ถ„ ์ „
[Solar: ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ํ”„๋ก ํ‹ฐ์–ด ์—๋„ˆ์ง€, ์„œํ˜ธ์ฃผ Waroona ํ•˜์ด๋ธŒ๋ฆฌ๋“œ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘-๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒด๊ฒฐ]
8๋ถ„ ์ „
[Solar: ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ํ”„๋ก ํ‹ฐ์–ด ์—๋„ˆ์ง€, ์„œํ˜ธ์ฃผ Waroona ํ•˜์ด๋ธŒ๋ฆฌ๋“œ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘-๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒด๊ฒฐ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[Solar: ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ํ”„๋ก ํ‹ฐ์–ด ์—๋„ˆ์ง€, ์„œํ˜ธ์ฃผ Waroona ํ•˜์ด๋ธŒ๋ฆฌ๋“œ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘-๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒด๊ฒฐ]
[Solar: ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ํ”„๋ก ํ‹ฐ์–ด ์—๋„ˆ์ง€, ์„œํ˜ธ์ฃผ Waroona ํ•˜์ด๋ธŒ๋ฆฌ๋“œ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘-๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒด๊ฒฐ]
ํ”„๋ก ํ‹ฐ์–ด ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋Š” ์„œํ˜ธ์ฃผ ๋‚จ์„œ๋ถ€์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ ์™€๋ฃจ๋‚˜ ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ 1๋‹จ๊ณ„์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ฃผ์š” ๊ณ„์•ฝ์„ ์ฒด๊ฒฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” 132MW ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฐœ์ „ ์‹œ์„ค๊ณผ 81.5MW/565MWh ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ €์žฅ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์œผ๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋œ๋‹ค. ๋ก ์ง€๊ฐ€ 650W ๋ฐ 655W ์ •๊ฒฉ์˜ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ํŒจ๋„ 20๋งŒ ์žฅ ์ด์ƒ์„ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ํ•˜๊ณ , ํŠธ๋ฆฌ๋‚˜์†”๋ผ๊ฐ€ 20๋…„ ๋ณด์ฆ ๋ฐ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ์„œ๋น„์Šค ๊ณ„์•ฝ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ์œ ๋‹›์„ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, SMA๊ฐ€ ์ธ๋ฒ„ํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•œ๋‹ค. ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์€ ์•ฝ 3์–ต 1์ฒœ๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ฒˆ ๋‹ฌ์— ์ฐฉ๊ณตํ•˜์—ฌ 2028๋…„ ์ฒซ ์ „๋ ฅ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ํ–ฅํ›„ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ 1GW ๋ฐ ์ €์žฅ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰ 660MW ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋กœ ํ™•์žฅํ•  ๊ณ„ํš์ด๋‹ค.
8๋ถ„ ์ „
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋ง๋ ˆ์ด์‹œ์•„, 2.5GW ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฐ 1.25GW ์ €์žฅ์žฅ์น˜๋ฅผ ํฌํ•จํ•œ LSS6 ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ ์ถœ๋ฒ”]
9๋ถ„ ์ „
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋ง๋ ˆ์ด์‹œ์•„, 2.5GW ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฐ 1.25GW ์ €์žฅ์žฅ์น˜๋ฅผ ํฌํ•จํ•œ LSS6 ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ ์ถœ๋ฒ”]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋ง๋ ˆ์ด์‹œ์•„, 2.5GW ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฐ 1.25GW ์ €์žฅ์žฅ์น˜๋ฅผ ํฌํ•จํ•œ LSS6 ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ ์ถœ๋ฒ”]
[ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘: ๋ง๋ ˆ์ด์‹œ์•„, 2.5GW ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฐ 1.25GW ์ €์žฅ์žฅ์น˜๋ฅผ ํฌํ•จํ•œ LSS6 ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ ์ถœ๋ฒ”]
๋ง๋ ˆ์ด์‹œ์•„ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์ „ํ™˜ยท์ˆ˜์ž์›์ „ํ™˜๋ถ€๋Š” 7์›”์— LSS6 ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ์ž…์ฐฐ์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜์—ฌ ์ด 2,500MW์˜ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ 1,250MW์˜ ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ €์žฅ์žฅ์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉํ•˜๊ณ , ๋ถ€๋ฏธํ‘ธํ…Œ๋ผ ๊ธฐ์—…์„ ์œ„ํ•ด 150MW๋ฅผ ๋ณ„๋„ ๋ฐฐ์ •ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ๋ง๋ ˆ์ด์‹œ์•„ ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ์œ ํ‹ธ๋ฆฌํ‹ฐ๊ธ‰ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ์ž…์ฐฐ์ด์ž, ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘-ESS ํ•˜์ด๋ธŒ๋ฆฌ๋“œ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์„ ์˜๋ฌดํ™”ํ•œ ์ฒซ LSS ๋ผ์šด๋“œ์ด๋‹ค. ์ด ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ์€ ์•ฝ 130์–ต~150์–ต ๋ง๊นƒ(์•ฝ 32์–ต~37์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ)์˜ ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„ ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ์œ ์น˜ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋˜๋ฉฐ, ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” ๋‹จ๊ณ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ค€๊ณต๋˜์–ด 2029๋…„ 12์›” 31์ผ๊นŒ์ง€ ์™„์ „ ์ƒ์—… ์šด์ „์„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ํ•œ๋‹ค.
9๋ถ„ ์ „
SMM Analysis Of Silicon Metal Market - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)