SMM daily review and forecast for rebar market

Rebar futures closed up 1.41% at 3,823 yuan/mt today. Stricter production restrictions in Tangshan were monitored in morning trading session. According to SMM research, as of the morning of July 12, there were shut-down of 7 BFs and scheduled shut-down of 2 BFs, leading to pig iron production losses by 30,300 mt. Therefore, iron ore and coke prices both trended lower, and rebar futures prices inched down. In afternoon trading session, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the policy documents linked to consumption recovery and expansion will be officially issued in the near future, reinforcing optimistic expectations on the macro market. Therefore, rebar futures prices hiked above the previous high.
Looking at the follow-up, demand for rebar in the off-season was weak, and rebar inventory slowly picked up. Supply-demand fundamentals will be balanced in a short run. It is expected that steel prices will still roll over next week. The FOMC meeting and Politburo meeting will deserve to watched.