Aluminium price forecast based on machine learning and technical indicators

The SMMI index rose 1.75% on a weekly basis as of last Tuesday. The machine learning indicates that the most-traded SHFE aluminium contract will fluctuate downwards this week. The random forest & time series model predicts that the price range of the most-traded SHFE aluminium contract will be [17,830, 18,510], and the extreme price range will be [17,670, 18,750]. The LSTM & time series model predicts that the range of SMM A00 aluminium average price will be [17,960, 18,640], and the extreme range will be [17,800, 18,810]. According to the SMM weekly fundamentals forecast model, the range of SMM A00 aluminium average price will be [17,670, 18,660].

The futures technical indicators suggest that the most-traded SHFE aluminium contract may fall this week. Based on the 4-hour K-line, SMM observed a total of 43 technical indicators, of which 19 were neutral, 5 were bullish, and 19 were bearish. Most of the oscillating indicators and trend indicators were bearish, while the momentum indicators generally pointed to rangebound price movement. Bearish signals outnumbered bullish ones.

After combining machine learning and futures technical indicators, SMM predicts that the most-traded SHFE aluminium contract will meet resistance in the range of [18,500, 18,800] while finding support in the range of [17,700, 17,800]. According to the SMM weekly fundamentals forecast model, the discounts and premiums of SMM A00 aluminium will be in the range of [30, 300] this week.