Rebar futures prices closed up 2.08% at 3,728 yuan/mt today. On the supply side, with the end of maintenance of blast furnace steel mills, rebar output loss decreased. In terms of electric arc furnaces, steel mills generally expressed that it is difficult to collect waste, and showed low willingness to resume operation amid falling steel prices. On the demand side, trading sentiment improved, ad terminal buyers mainly purchased on demand.
From the follow-up point of view, at the macro level, the Russia-Ukraine dispute temporarily returned to calm, and domestic favourable policy expectations were partially fulfilled. From a fundamental point of view, on the cost side, coal coke demand was acceptable, but steel mills were clearly willing to lower prices. Therefore, transactions appeared weak. Iron ore price went stable-to-strong, which may provide some support for steel prices. On the finished product side, driven by profits from blast furnaces, the output of rebar may inch up. Although demand is transitioning to the off-season, it still shows a certain degree of resilience. On the whole, with balanced supply and demand and warmer macro expectations, steel prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels in a short run.
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