Bloomberg Sees Spiking Volatility in Japanese Yen

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Mar 29, 2023 10:57
In Japan, the return of inflation has also led to bets on yen appreciation.

In Japan, the return of inflation has also led to bets on yen appreciation.

Traders expect the Bank of Japan to finally normalise policy after years of holding interest rates near zero. In the face of global interest rate hikes, the bank's ultra-loose policy was one of the reasons why the yen lost its safe-haven status last year.

The yen fell more than 24% against the dollar at one point. And a surge in interest in the yen could also mean more volatility for the currency.

 "As the Fed's rate hike cycle draws to a close, which is likely to be the main driver of USD/JPY market action, Japan could be a country of heightened exchange rate volatility," said Tanvir Sandhu, chief global derivatives strategist at Bloomberg.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
์—ฐ์ค€ ์œŒ๋ฆฌ์—„์Šค, ๋น„๋‘˜๊ธฐํŒŒ์  ๋ฐœ์–ธ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ ์† ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน ๊ฒฌ์ธ
29๋ถ„ ์ „
์—ฐ์ค€ ์œŒ๋ฆฌ์—„์Šค, ๋น„๋‘˜๊ธฐํŒŒ์  ๋ฐœ์–ธ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ ์† ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน ๊ฒฌ์ธ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์—ฐ์ค€ ์œŒ๋ฆฌ์—„์Šค, ๋น„๋‘˜๊ธฐํŒŒ์  ๋ฐœ์–ธ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ ์† ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน ๊ฒฌ์ธ
์—ฐ์ค€ ์œŒ๋ฆฌ์—„์Šค, ๋น„๋‘˜๊ธฐํŒŒ์  ๋ฐœ์–ธ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ ์† ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน ๊ฒฌ์ธ
[SMM ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† ์ต์Šคํ”„๋ ˆ์Šค] ๋‰ด์š• ์—ฐ์€ ์ด์žฌ ์œŒ๋ฆฌ์—„์Šค๋Š” ์ธํ”Œ๋ ˆ์ด์…˜ ์ถ”์„ธ๊ฐ€ ์™„๋งŒํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋‘”ํ™”๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด ์ ์ ˆํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜€ ๋น„๋‘˜๊ธฐํŒŒ์  ์ž…์žฅ์„ ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ๋ƒˆ๋‹ค. ์—ฐ์ค€์˜ ๋ฒ ์ด์ง€๋ถ ๋˜ํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์ „๋ง์ด ๋Œ€์ฒด๋กœ ๊ธ์ •์ ์ด์ง€๋งŒ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ์ด ์ปค์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์–ธ๊ธ‰ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‘ ์š”์ธ์ด ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ๋‚ฎ์ถ”๋ฉฐ ๊ท€๊ธˆ์†์— ์ง€์ง€๋ ฅ์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
29๋ถ„ ์ „
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ADP ๊ณ ์šฉ์ง€ํ‘œ ๋ถ€์ง„, ์—ฐ์ค€ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธํ•˜ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์† ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† ๋ฐ ์œ„ํ—˜์ž์‚ฐ ์ƒ์Šน
29๋ถ„ ์ „
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ADP ๊ณ ์šฉ์ง€ํ‘œ ๋ถ€์ง„, ์—ฐ์ค€ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธํ•˜ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์† ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† ๋ฐ ์œ„ํ—˜์ž์‚ฐ ์ƒ์Šน
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ADP ๊ณ ์šฉ์ง€ํ‘œ ๋ถ€์ง„, ์—ฐ์ค€ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธํ•˜ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์† ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† ๋ฐ ์œ„ํ—˜์ž์‚ฐ ์ƒ์Šน
๋ฏธ๊ตญ ADP ๊ณ ์šฉ์ง€ํ‘œ ๋ถ€์ง„, ์—ฐ์ค€ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธํ•˜ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ ์† ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† ๋ฐ ์œ„ํ—˜์ž์‚ฐ ์ƒ์Šน
[SMM ๊ท€๊ธˆ์† ์ต์Šคํ”„๋ ˆ์Šค] ๋ฏธ๊ตญ 8์›” ADP ๊ณ ์šฉ์€ ์‹œ์žฅ ์˜ˆ์ƒ์น˜๋ฅผ ๋ฐ‘๋„๋Š” 3๋งŒ 8์ฒœ ๋ช… ์ฆ๊ฐ€์— ๊ทธ์ณค๋‹ค. ๊ณ ์šฉ ์ง€ํ‘œ ๋ถ€์ง„์œผ๋กœ ์—ฐ์ค€ ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธํ•˜ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์™€ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์•ฝ์„ธ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ•ํ™”๋˜๋ฉฐ ๊ท€๊ธˆ์†๊ณผ ์œ„ํ—˜์ž์‚ฐ์— ์šฐํ˜ธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘์šฉํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
29๋ถ„ ์ „
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ, ๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ์‚ฌ์—… ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 835MW ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค ํ™•๋ณด
17์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ, ๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ์‚ฌ์—… ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 835MW ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค ํ™•๋ณด
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ, ๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ์‚ฌ์—… ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 835MW ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค ํ™•๋ณด
์‹œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ, ๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ์‚ฌ์—… ์ง€์› ์œ„ํ•ด 835MW ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค ํ™•๋ณด
[SMM ๋‹จ์‹ ] Sibanye-Stillwater๋Š” ๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด๊ณตํ™”๊ตญ ๊ด‘์‚ฐ ์šด์˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์„ ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ™•๋Œ€ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ, ๋…๋ฆฝ๋ฐœ์ „์‚ฌ์—…์ž์™€์˜ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด 835MW์˜ ์žฌ์ƒ์ „๋ ฅ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋Š” ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ 43%, ํ’๋ ฅ 57%๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋˜๋ฉฐ, 164MW๋Š” ์ด๋ฏธ ์ƒ์—… ์šด์ „ ์ค‘์ด๊ณ  671MW๋Š” ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ฒด๊ฒฐ ํ›„ ๊ฑด์„ค ์ค‘์ด๋‹ค. ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค์—๋Š” ์šด์˜ ์ค‘์ธ 89MW Castle ํ’๋ ฅ๋ฐœ์ „๋‹จ์ง€์™€ 75MW Springbok ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๊ฐ€ ํฌํ•จ๋˜๋ฉฐ, 103MW Witberg ๋ฐ 140MW Umsinde ํ’๋ ฅ๋ฐœ์ „๋‹จ์ง€๋Š” 2026๋…„ 4๋ถ„๊ธฐ๊ฒฝ ๊ฐ€๋™๋  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋‹ค. ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์œผ๋กœ๋Š” Etana Energy ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค 220MW, NOA ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค 138MW, Africa GreenCo๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•œ 70MW๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋“ค ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” 2027~28๋…„์— ์™„๊ณต๋  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฒˆ ํˆฌ์ž๋Š” ์ „๋ ฅ๋ง ์ œ์•ฝ๊ณผ ๊ธฐ์กด ์ „๋ ฅ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ด‘์—… ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์˜ ๋…ธ์ถœ์„ ์ค„์ด๋Š” ๋ฐ ์žˆ์–ด ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€์˜ ์—ญํ• ์ด ์ปค์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค€๋‹ค. Sibanye๋Š” 2028๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ๋‚จ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด๊ณตํ™”๊ตญ ์—๋„ˆ์ง€ ์ˆ˜์š”์˜ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜ ์ด์ƒ์„ ์žฌ์ƒ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๊ฐ€ ์ถฉ๋‹นํ•  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”๋‹ค. ํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ 835MW ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋Š” ๋Œ€ํ˜• ๊ธฐ์กด ๋ฐœ์ „์„ค๋น„ 1๊ธฐ์— ๋งž๋จน๋Š” ์šฉ๋Ÿ‰์œผ๋กœ, ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘ ๋ฐ ํ’๋ ฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ํŒŒ์ดํ”„๋ผ์ธ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค.
17์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
Bloomberg Sees Spiking Volatility in Japanese Yen - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)