With the prospect of the AI industry being clearer, the impact of technological change on the labour market has also become a hot research topic.
Goldman Sachs estimates that taking the US as an example, about two-thirds of jobs will be affected by AI to some extent, and the degree of impact on most people will be between 25% and 50%. Assuming that the workers in this position will lose their jobs if the impact exceeds 50%, then under the baseline scenario where half of the employers use AI, about 7% of the jobs in the US will cease to exist in the next ten years. Among them, the most affected positions are office workers, legal workers, construction engineers and scientific research workers. Jobs that require manual labour or outdoor labour are largely unaffected.
From the most macro point of view, in the baseline scenario predicted by Goldman Sachs, for those American workers who have not lost their jobs due to AI, the application of AI can make their annualised productivity growth rate reach 1.5% in the next ten years, which is almost the double the current level. Under the background that half of the world's employers use AI, the growth rate of global GDP can also increase by 7% in the next ten years, corresponding to about $7 trillion. Due to the different divisions of labour in the globalisation of countries around the world, Goldman Sachs predicts that AI will have a higher impact on the labour market in developed countries than in developing countries.