SMM Forecast for Changes in Price Spread Between Imported Iron Ore of Different Grades (Mar 6-10, 2023)

[Iran] The Iranian semi-finished steel market has recently shown a distinct divergence between domestic and export sectors. In the billet segment, export trading remained subdued due to shipping constraints, heightened maritime risks, and cooling regional demand, with export offers softening to 410–415 USD/tonne FOB and concluded transactions limited mostly to 10,000–15,000-tonne barge consignments or small regional lots; by contrast, the domestic market performed strongly, buoyed by the sharp depreciation of the local currency and summer power shortages. In the slab segment, export quotes edged down slightly to 420 USD/tonne FOB; however, severe geopolitical risks, strict compliance scrutiny by shipowners, and the necessity to reroute shipments via Oman or the UAE significantly inflated logistical costs and fulfillment uncertainty, sending overseas buying interest to freezing point and leaving the market devoid of major deals.

[Europe] As the European summer holiday season draws to a close, hot-rolled coil (HRC) spot prices across Northwest Europe and Italy saw narrow rangebound gains. Ex-works prices in Northwest Europe settled at 733 EUR/tonne EXW (approx. 851 USD/tonne), while Italian ex-works quotes stood at 727 EUR/tonne EXW (approx. 844 USD/tonne). On the supply side, some Northwest European mills actively offered November shipments to Southern Europe, raising quotes to 790 EUR/tonne DDP (approx. 917.50 USD/tonne), while certain Italian suppliers elevated quotes to 750–760 EUR/tonne DDP (approx. 870–883 USD/tonne). However, with downstream end-user demand recovering sluggishly and buyers unable to pass on higher costs, these elevated price levels were largely rejected by the market. In the import sector, Turkish mills held export offers to Europe steady at 565–580 EUR/tonne CFR (approx. 656–673 USD/tonne, excluding duties), though buyer interest remained minimal due to compounded tariff, quota, and compliance risks.

9월 3일 기준, 이번 주 총 철근 재고는 647.76만 톤으로 전주 대비 9.49만 톤 감소해 1.44% 줄었으며, 음력 기준 전년 동기 대비 17.55% 증가했다. 이번 주 총 선재 재고는 144.83만 톤으로 전주 대비 4.02만 톤 감소해 2.70% 줄었으며, 음력 기준 전년 동기 대비 12.85% 증가했다.