China's Bauxite Imports in Nov Exceeded 10 Million mt Again, with Indonesia's Ban Taking Effect in Next June

SHANGHAI, Dec 26 (SMM) - Customs data showed that China imported 11.79 million mt of bauxite in November, up 31% MoM and 53% YoY. The data marked that the monthly imports exceeded 10 million mt again. Imports in the first 11 months of 2022 totalled 115.40 million mt, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%.

In November, the imports from Guinea hit a record high at 7.28 million mt, an increase of 65% month-on-month and 125% year-on-year; imports from Australia were 2.83 million mt, a drop of 14% month-on-month, but up 7% year-on-year; imports from Indonesia stood at 1.36 million mt, up 28% on the month and down 25% on the year. In addition, there were imports from new countries including Turkey, Ghana, Montenegro, Jamaica, Iran, Cote d'Ivoire and Russia.

Imports from Guinea:

Bauxite imports from Guinea hit a record high at 7.28 million mt, an increase of 65% month-on-month and 125% year-on-year. The surge in imports from Guinea were driven by the following four factors. (1) Since the end of December 2021 when the news of Indonesia’s bauxite export ban came out, domestic alumina plants were inclined to give priority to Guinean ores when considering alternatives to Indonesian ores. (2) As the year 2022 was about to close, domestic alumina plants that used Guinean bauxite actively replenished their inventory to sustain the production for another two to three months. This stimulated the increase in the arrivals of imported bauxite from Guinea. (3) The bauxite exports of Guinea are basically sent to China. The local mines want to expand their market shares in China when Indonesia’s bauxite export ban creates a supply gap. Therefore, the enthusiasm of Guinean miners for production has been high, and the amount of ore exported to China soared. (4) At present, Guinea has already got rid of the troubles of the rainy season, thus the ore production and shipments have gradually recovered. It is expected that bauxite imports from Guinea will continue to recover.

Imports from Australia:

The bauxite imports from Australia stood at 2.84 million mt, a decrease of 14% MoM and an increase of 7% YoY. Generally, the imports from Australian were relatively stable throughout the year. That is, the supply and demand of Australian ore always maintained a dynamic balance.

Imports from Indonesia:

Bauxite imports from Indonesia amounted to 1.36 million mt in November, an increase of 28% month-on-month and a decrease of 25% year-on-year. The shipments were mainly under the long-term orders signed before, and the supply in the spot market was insufficient. On December 21, Indonesian President Joko announced that the export of bauxite will be banned from June 2023 in order to promote the development of India’s bauxite processing industry. SMM believes that the impact of Indonesia’s export ban on the supply of bauxite is controllable based on the following reasons. (1) From January to November 2022, bauxite imports from Indonesia accounted for only 15.6% of the total imports. This implies that the decline in the imports from Indonesia will be supplemented by imports from other countries and regions. (2) China is the world's largest bauxite market, and other countries are grappling to snatch a market share. At present, new bauxite suppliers are emerging including Montenegro, Malaysia, Solomon, and Jamaica. (3) The purpose of the export ban in Indonesia is to increase the output of local alumina enterprises. At present, Chinese enterprises Nanshan Group and Weiqiao Group have already launched 4-million-mt alumina projects in Indonesia. In this context, the project will make good use of local bauxite and ship the alumina produced to China, so the domestic alumina supply will not be greatly hurt. (4) Chinese companies, such as Weiqiao, Chinalco, State Power Investment Corporation, etc., all invested in bauxite mines in Guinea, hence the overall bauxite supply in Guinea will see positive growth in 2023. Globally, bauxite supply will be in surplus, and the country with the largest oversupply will be Guinea.

Generally, the domestic bauxite output has little room to grow, while new alumina capacity was constantly being put into operation, boosting the demand for imported ore. The unprecedented popularity of bauxite market will attract more players to join in. That is why new countries, such as Ghana, Jamaica, Solomon and Turkey, started to provide bauxite and may continue to maintain stable supply to meet China's huge demand. As such, the negative impact of Indonesia's ban on bauxite export will be alleviated. However, the domestic alumina plants were more in need of low-priced bauxite to restore their own profits. If the alumina prices remain low while the bauxite prices continue to stand high, the alumina plants will have to reduce the production to avoid the expansion of losses. At that time, the prices of imported bauxite will also face downward pressure.