[Conference Takeaway] China International Photovoltaic Industry Development Forum

SHANGHAI, Jul 22 (SMM) - The 7th China International New Energy Conference 2022, hosted by the SMM (Shanghai Metals Market), has come to a successful end last week. Over 2,000 industry experts and guests participated in the conference, and people provided their perspectives on a variety of topics regarding the most recent trends in the new energy industry, including new energy batteries and their materials, power battery recycling, new energy equipment, and technologies as well as international new energy industry chain.

Speech topic: Current situation of China's industrial silicon industry

Speaker: Lu Minping, senior silicon analyst of SMM

Lu introduced the current situation of China's industrial silicon industry, as well as the industrial silicon varieties and the global supply and demand dynamics.

She explained that the global silicon demand was on the rise thanks to the development of the silicone and polysilicon industries. In terms of the consumption of industrial silicon, China is the world's largest consumer, followed other consumers including the EU, the United States, and Japan. The silicon consumption during the aluminium alloys production increased slowly due to the sluggish demand from the automotive industry. In contrast, the consumption by silicone was on a steady rise as it enjoyed a wide range of downstream applications. The polysilicon has a huge potential of development in the future with a rapid growth in its consumption.

Speech topic: Development Trend of Large Scale 210 Modules

Speaker: Zhang Yingbin, the head of Product Strategy and Marketing from Trina Solar

Zhang introduced Trina Solar's modules and battery as well as the development trends of global energy transition, the photovoltaic industry, and the costs per kWh of photovoltaic power. He also provide some suggestions to lower the costs.

Speech topic: Status quo and prospects of the silicon material technology innovation

Speaker: Liu Tao, Director of GCL-Poly Central Research Institute 

Liu introduced GCL's FBR technology to produce granular silicon, including its competitive advantages, procedure, carbon footprint, technical safety, latest progress, etc. In addition, he provided the information about the production capacity and market share of GCL’s granular silicon, the future supply and demand of silicon materials and the development potential of FBR technology.

Speech topic: Technology and policy of recycling photovoltaic cell scrap

Speaker: Xu Juan, senior engineer from China Solid Waste and Chemicals Management Centre, Ministry of Ecology and Environment

Xu shared with the meeting participants the information about the current technology and policy of recycling photovoltaic cell scrap in China.

Speech topic: Analysis of the status quo and development trend of China photovoltaic industry in 2022

Speaker: Zhang Lei, CEO of Zheshang Securities Co., Ltd.

Zhang suggested that the photovoltaic manufacturing industry would be fully transferred to China as photovoltaic became increasingly affordable. The market competition would grow fiercer with lower costs of photovoltaic power; given the easy and cheap grid connection of photovoltaic power, the impacts of subsidies were expected to weaken. As photovoltaic manufacturing is transferring to China, the exports of photovoltaic products hit a record high. The pursuit of energy independence continued to increase around the globe and the efforts to achieve carbon neutrality has sped up. The demand for photovoltaic in Europe exceeded expectations greatly, and as the growth rate of the global photovoltaic installed capacity increased, the demand is expected to continue to exceed expectations.

Speech topic: Global photovoltaic outlook in 2022

Speaker: Jenny Chase, Head of Bloomberg NEF Solar Research

Jenny Chase, the head of Bloomberg New Energy Finance Solar Research, offered an outlook on the global photovoltaic market in 2022. She predicted that polysilicon prices would fall by the end of this year as more polysilicon plants ramp up their capacity. The photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to continue to grow on the basis of last year's 1.82GW and this year's 2.41GW. According to current growth rate, the global annual photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to reach 443GW by 2030, but it will need to at least double to reach the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.

Speech topic: Application prospect of silicon in aluminium alloy industry

Speaker: Li Hongwei, assistant president from Guangdong Huajin Aluminium Group

Li explained the impact of the changes in the casting aluminium alloy industry on the silicon market. He shared his view from the following four aspects: the current situation of the silicon-aluminium alloy industry, the relationship between silicon-aluminium alloy’s raw materials and silicon, the analysis of changes in the silicon-aluminium alloy market, and analysis and prospects of the hot spots in the silicon-aluminium industry. Li suggested that the demand for silicon in the silicon-aluminium alloys will continue to grow until 2025 and remain stable after 2025.

Speech topic: Development trend of silicone industry and forecast of demand for industrial silicon

Speaker: Cao Xianjun, vice Chairman and Secretary General from China Fluorosilicone Organic Materials Industry Association

Cao introduced the development trend of the silicone industry and shared his forecast for the industrial silicon demand: the average annual growth rate of methyl monomer production is expected to be 10% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period; by 2025, the production capacity of methyl monomer (equivalent to pure siloxane) is expected to stand at 2.5 million mt. The operating rate and output are assumed to be 86% and 2.15 million mt respectively. He also estimated that the consumption of silicon metal will reach 2.5 million mt in 2025, with a net increase of 680,000 mt or 38%. A more positive estimate puts the figures at 3.26 million mt of consumption with a net increase of 1.45 million mt.

Speech topic: Introduction of industrial silicon futures contract and a simulation scheme of arbitrage and hedging

Speaker: Shao Wanjie, senior researcher of Guotai Junan Futures Co., Ltd.

Shao introduced the industrial silicon futures contract to the participants, and provided a simulation scheme of arbitrage and hedging. The main points of her speech included: the design of delivery area and delivery system for industrial silicon futures, the design of risk control system for industrial silicon futures, key points in the industrial silicon options contract, and a simulation scheme of arbitrage and hedging.