A Quick Look into Aluminium Fundamentals When LME Aluminium Drop for Three Straight Days

๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Mar 10, 2022 16:16
LME aluminium has been falling for three consecutive days after refreshing the record of historical high at $4,073.5/mt on March 7 on the back of a market โ€œfeverโ€.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
[๋ผ์ด๋ธŒ] ์ œ15์ฐจ 5๊ฐœ๋…„ ๊ณ„ํš ์ „๋ ฅ ์ผ€์ด๋ธ” ๋ฐœ์ „ ํŒจํ„ด ๋ถ„์„, ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๋ฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์‹œ์žฅ ๋ถ„์„, ์ค‘๋™ยท์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ๊ธฐํšŒ ํƒ์ƒ‰, PV ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์ „๋ง
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[๋ผ์ด๋ธŒ] ์ œ15์ฐจ 5๊ฐœ๋…„ ๊ณ„ํš ์ „๋ ฅ ์ผ€์ด๋ธ” ๋ฐœ์ „ ํŒจํ„ด ๋ถ„์„, ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๋ฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์‹œ์žฅ ๋ถ„์„, ์ค‘๋™ยท์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ๊ธฐํšŒ ํƒ์ƒ‰, PV ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์ „๋ง
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[๋ผ์ด๋ธŒ] ์ œ15์ฐจ 5๊ฐœ๋…„ ๊ณ„ํš ์ „๋ ฅ ์ผ€์ด๋ธ” ๋ฐœ์ „ ํŒจํ„ด ๋ถ„์„, ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๋ฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์‹œ์žฅ ๋ถ„์„, ์ค‘๋™ยท์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ๊ธฐํšŒ ํƒ์ƒ‰, PV ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์ „๋ง
[๋ผ์ด๋ธŒ] ์ œ15์ฐจ 5๊ฐœ๋…„ ๊ณ„ํš ์ „๋ ฅ ์ผ€์ด๋ธ” ๋ฐœ์ „ ํŒจํ„ด ๋ถ„์„, ๊ตฌ๋ฆฌ ๋ฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์‹œ์žฅ ๋ถ„์„, ์ค‘๋™ยท์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ๊ธฐํšŒ ํƒ์ƒ‰, PV ์—๋‚˜๋ฉœ์„  ์ „๋ง
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๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ ๋‹ฅ๋† ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ, ์ฒซ ์ „๋ ฅ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑโ€ฆ 45๋งŒ ํ†ค/๋…„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
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๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ ๋‹ฅ๋† ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ, ์ฒซ ์ „๋ ฅ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑโ€ฆ 45๋งŒ ํ†ค/๋…„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ ๋‹ฅ๋† ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ, ์ฒซ ์ „๋ ฅ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑโ€ฆ 45๋งŒ ํ†ค/๋…„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ ๋‹ฅ๋† ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ, ์ฒซ ์ „๋ ฅ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑโ€ฆ 45๋งŒ ํ†ค/๋…„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ๋ชฉํ‘œ
[SMM ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํŠน๊ธ‰ ๋‰ด์Šค] ๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ ์ตœ์ดˆ์˜ 1์ฐจ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ œ๋ จ์†Œ์ธ ๋‹ฅ๋† ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๊ฐ€ ์ฒซ ์ „๋ ฅ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์— ์„ฑ๊ณตํ•˜์—ฌ ์žฅ๋น„ ํ…Œ์ŠคํŠธ, ํ†ตํ•ฉ ์‹œ์šด์ „ ๋ฐ ์‹œํ—˜ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ค€๋น„๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•ด์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. Tran Hong Quan Metallurgy(THQ)๊ฐ€ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ณ  NFC๊ฐ€ EPC ๊ณ„์•ฝ์ž๋กœ ์ฐธ์—ฌํ•œ ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์˜ ์„ค๊ณ„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์€ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 45๋งŒ ํ†ค์ด๋ฉฐ, 3๋‹จ๊ณ„๋กœ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: ์ดˆ๊ธฐ 15๋งŒ ํ†ค, 2027๋…„ ์ดˆ 30๋งŒ ํ†ค, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  2027~2028๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ์ตœ์ข… 45๋งŒ ํ†ค ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋ฅผ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „๊ธฐ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด ์ฒซ ์‹œ๋„์— ์„ฑ๊ณต์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ†ต์ „๋˜์–ด ์‹œํ—˜ ๊ฐ€๋™์„ ํ–ฅํ•œ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ด์ •ํ‘œ๋ฅผ ์„ธ์› ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
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2023๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ค‘๊ตญ ๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ ํˆฌ์ž ๋ฐ ํŒ๋งค ๊ฐ์†Œ, ๋Œ€๊ธฐ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œํญ ๊ฐ์†Œ
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2023๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ค‘๊ตญ ๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ ํˆฌ์ž ๋ฐ ํŒ๋งค ๊ฐ์†Œ, ๋Œ€๊ธฐ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œํญ ๊ฐ์†Œ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
2023๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ค‘๊ตญ ๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ ํˆฌ์ž ๋ฐ ํŒ๋งค ๊ฐ์†Œ, ๋Œ€๊ธฐ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œํญ ๊ฐ์†Œ
2023๋…„ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์ค‘๊ตญ ๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ ํˆฌ์ž ๋ฐ ํŒ๋งค ๊ฐ์†Œ, ๋Œ€๊ธฐ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์†Œํญ ๊ฐ์†Œ
[SMM ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ต์Šคํ”„๋ ˆ์Šค] ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ†ต๊ณ„๊ตญ(NBS) ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, 1~6์›” ์ „๊ตญ ๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ํˆฌ์ž๋Š” 3์กฐ 8,074์–ต ์œ„์•ˆ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 18.0% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด ์ค‘ ์ฃผ๊ฑฐ์šฉ ํˆฌ์ž๋Š” 2์กฐ 9,300์–ต ์œ„์•ˆ์œผ๋กœ 17.8% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 1~6์›” ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ƒ์—…์šฉ ๊ฑด๋ฌผ ํŒ๋งค ๋ฉด์ ์€ 4์–ต 140๋งŒ mยฒ๋กœ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 11.6% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด ์ค‘ ์ฃผ๊ฑฐ์šฉ ํŒ๋งค ๋ฉด์ ์€ 12.4% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์‹ ๊ทœ ์ƒ์—…์šฉ ๊ฑด๋ฌผ ํŒ๋งค์•ก์€ 3์กฐ 7,945์–ต ์œ„์•ˆ์œผ๋กœ 13.6% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด ์ค‘ ์ฃผ๊ฑฐ์šฉ ํŒ๋งค์•ก์€ 13.7% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 6์›” ๋ง ๊ธฐ์ค€ ์ƒ์—…์šฉ ๊ฑด๋ฌผ ๋ฏธ๋ถ„์–‘ ๋ฉด์ ์€ 7์–ต 6,315๋งŒ mยฒ๋กœ ์ „๋…„ ๋™๊ธฐ ๋Œ€๋น„ 0.9% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ์ค‘ 3๋…„ ๋ฏธ๋งŒ ๋ฏธ๋ถ„์–‘ ๋ฉด์ ์€ 5์–ต 6,167๋งŒ mยฒ๋กœ 3.5% ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
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LME aluminium has been falling for three consecutive days after refres - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)