Supply worries lead to the emergence of "demon nickel" related listed companies into "golden branch jade nickel"

Supply concerns triggered a sharp rise in the outer disk of nickel prices on the 7th, while the main contract for nickel in Shanghai also closed by the daily limit.

The price of nickel is pushed up, and the performance of relevant domestic listed companies is expected to increase. China Metallurgical (601618.SH) Securities Department staff said that at current prices, the company's nickel mine is expected to return to the net profit of about 2 billion yuan. The staff of the securities department of 002340.SZ said that the first phase of the company's overseas nickel mine project was put into production in the first half of this year, and the second phase was put into production next year or the year after next according to demand, and the rise in nickel prices will have a positive impact on the company's performance.

Nickel price remains high and the downstream supply chain is under pressure.

On March 7th, the rise in nickel futures in London widened to 30 per cent, approaching $38000 a tonne, the highest level since July 2007. At the same time, the main contract of Shanghai Nickel rose 210950 yuan / ton, or 12%.

Some people in the industry said that the nickel price reached an all-time high in 2007, when it reached about 50, 000 US dollars per tonne, and the current nickel price is close to it.

On the supply side, Chen Pingping said that due to the geographical conflict, Russian nickel trading and transportation have been hindered and delayed, pushing up nickel prices. At present, the Philippines is currently in the rainy season, and there is no significant increase in nickel ore supply caused by seasonal shipping problems. It is expected that nickel ore imports will not change until the end of the rainy season in Suriname, that is, in the second quarter. At the same time, recently, the number of confirmed cases imported from the port has increased, and the upgrading of anti-epidemic testing measures for nickel imports at the port will, to a certain extent, delay the arrival of raw materials for enterprises and further push up production costs.

It is reported that nickel, like lithium and cobalt, is one of the important raw materials for the production of power batteries, which is mainly used in ternary material batteries. At present, stainless steel is the largest downstream of nickel, accounting for 68% of global nickel consumption. But with the explosive growth of the new energy industry, the proportion of power batteries has increased from 10% to 15% from 2020 to 2021.

At present, in the nickel ore-nickel iron-stainless steel industry chain, Chen Pingping said that the low price of stainless steel nickel raw materials may continue. At present, stainless steel enterprises have also rapidly raised their quotations, but the purchased high nickel iron process of 300 series stainless steel cold rolling still loses 2% profit. The profit margin is very narrow, and there is also some pressure on the transmission of terminal consumption. Steel mills can not accept the high price of nickel raw materials, the wait-and-see mood is strong.

However, Chen Pingping said at the same time that at this stage, the demand for new energy is still in an optimistic state. Although the raw materials of the industrial chain are on the rise, car companies can still raise prices for sale because the contradiction between car companies and raw materials has not reached the most intense moment. Consumers have a certain ability to accept price increases.

Chen Pingping said that the current nickel price is strongly pushed up, resulting in a great increase in cost pressure in the downstream industry, there is a risk of demand reduction. At the same time, LME raised the nickel contract deposit by 12.5%, and the continued production of the Castle Peak and High Ice Nickel project in Indonesia will play a certain role in alleviating the trading operation and industry gap.

The relevant listed companies have become "golden branches, jade and nickel".

The price of nickel has skyrocketed, and listed companies with nickel mines at home have attracted the attention of investors. According to a person in the industry, the distribution of nickel ore is relatively scattered, and there are great differences in production costs among nickel mines in different regions and different projects. Combing the financial reports of relevant listed companies, it is found that the production cost of MCC's Rimu Nickel-Cobalt project is about US $14000 / ton, while Grimmer's announcement says that overseas nickel production costs are US $10000-11000 per metal ton.

In terms of production capacity, MCC's Rimu Nickel-Cobalt Project, located in Madang Province, Papua New Guinea, is a world-class nickel-cobalt mining project integrating mining, separation and metallurgy. The project produces nickel-cobalt intermediate products with an annual output of equivalent metal equivalent of about 36000 tons / year. According to the staff of the securities department of the company, the mine is currently in a state of overproduction, with a capacity utilization rate of more than 103%. At present, the company has a 67 per cent interest in the mine, with a net profit of about 2 billion yuan, and the rise in nickel prices will provide further support to the company's performance.

Grimme previously said on the investor interactive platform that the company's Indonesian nickel resources project has an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of nickel metal, including 20,000 gold tons of nickel intermediates and 30,000 tons of nickel sulfate. The staff of the company's securities department said that at present, the company is accelerating the promotion of the Indonesian nickel resources project to meet the strategic needs of the company's precursor materials development for nickel resources.

Industrial Mining (000426.SZ) said on the investor interactive platform on February 28th that the company's subsidiary Tanghe era Mining has nickel and cobalt metal reserves, and it is estimated that the total amount of copper and nickel ore in the mining area is 97.549 million tons, of which the associated resource palladium metal is 15703 kg.

Qingdao 300208.SZ currently holds about 2014 hectares of Madani nickel mine in Sulawesi Province, Indonesia, and about 1963 hectares of BMU nickel mine (the company has a total stake in BMU80%). The company has obtained the exploration and mining rights of the above minerals. In addition, the company also has two subsidiaries in Indonesia, Hengshun Indonesia Su Island Nickel Mining Co., Ltd., and Hengshun Indonesia China Su Nickel Mining Co., Ltd., with a shareholding ratio of 95% and 80% respectively. On March 1, the company said on the investor interactive platform that the development of the nickel mine should be combined with the company's development strategy and market conditions, and the open-pit mining of the laterite nickel mine held by the company can be done.

However, the person in charge of Qingdao Intermediate said that so far, the company's overseas nickel mines have not yet been mined and sold.

The progress of development is expected to be accelerated.

Chen Pingping said that China's nickel resources are limited, unable to meet domestic demand, and still need a lot of imported resources to replenish. The output of primary nickel in 2021 is 706900 tons and the demand is 1.5583 million tons. In 2022, it is estimated that the domestic primary nickel production will be 785800 tons and the demand will be 1.7265 million tons.

According to the Global Evaluation report of Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel, Tin and Potash Mineral Resources (2021) released by the China Geological Survey, by 2020, the world has 90.63 million tons of nickel reserves and 260 million tons of resources. Indonesia ranks first in the world in reserves. Australia, Russia and other countries are rich in resources.

China's nickel reserves are 3.98 million tons, accounting for about 4.39% of the world. The types of nickel deposits in China are mainly divided into two categories: nickel sulphide ore and nickel laterite, but mainly copper-nickel sulphide ore, accounting for about 90% of the national total. and there are many associated minerals and high comprehensive utilization value; nickel laterite accounts for about 10% of the total.

At the press conference of the State Information Office on February 28, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that this year will focus on meeting the production needs of power batteries and appropriately speed up the development of domestic resources such as lithium and nickel, which means that the development of domestic resources such as lithium and nickel has won support at the national level, which will also provide favorable conditions for the accelerated release of domestic production capacity of lithium, nickel and other resources.

In terms of overseas resources, the relevant listed companies are also actively seeking to expand production. China MCC Securities Department staff said that at present, the company's overseas nickel mine production is stable, the next step is to expand production plans, affected by the epidemic has not yet started, according to the planned output doubled to about 65000 tons per year. "the first phase has been under construction for four or five years, and it will take at least two years for the second phase to be officially launched. At present, it has not been officially launched."

Greenmei said that by 2025, the company's Indonesian nickel resources project nickel metal production capacity will exceed 100000 metal tons / year, the benefits will be fully released, and actively promote the construction of an industrial chain from nickel resources to ternary materials in Indonesia.

Financial Associated Press reporter: Xiao Lianghua