The inflection point has not yet arrived! The price of polysilicon rises slightly after the holiday and the photovoltaic industry chain may have to quench its thirst in the first half of the year.

The photovoltaic industry chain involves many links, and the upstream silicon material cost price directly affects the downstream profit distribution. In 2021, in the context of silicon shortage, the upstream has a voice and earns a lot of money, while downstream batteries and components are "hurt" more deeply.

"the price is higher than expected" and "the price is strong" are the key words in the upper reaches of the industrial chain since the beginning of the year. For the downstream who have been looking forward to the price reduction of silicon materials for a long time, they will still be in a state of waiting for plums to quench thirst in the short term. At present, the price of silicon continues to rise slightly. According to the latest news from the Silicon Industry Association, the price of silicon continues to rise steadily and slightly in the first week after the Spring Festival, but the increase is small, with the average transaction price rising by about 0.7%.

A person from silicon manufacturers told the Financial Associated Press that the recent demand for downstream exports is relatively strong, and supply and demand promote silicon prices to continue to rise. In addition, according to Longzhong information monitoring, before and after the Spring Festival holiday, a number of front-line enterprises have maintained a high operating rate of production, other second-and third-tier enterprises have also resumed production one after another. Industry analysts said that the overall price trend of the post-holiday industrial chain is strong, and the prices of silicon wafers and batteries have risen significantly. In the downstream conflict, the game situation continues.

The upstream continues to rise slightly.

Data from the Silicon Industry Branch show that this week, the price range of domestic single crystal re-feeding materials is between 23.5 yuan and 247000 yuan / ton, with the average transaction price rising to 242700 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.66% over the previous week; and the price range of single crystal compact material is in the range of 23.3 yuan / ton to 245000 yuan / ton. the average transaction price rose to 240200 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.71% from the previous week.

It is worth noting that the average transaction price still has upward momentum in the short term. According to Longzhong information monitoring, due to the high demand for hoarding goods downstream, the price of silicon material continues to be good after the festival, and the price is still high; in terms of inventory, only some local suppliers in Xinjiang have partial inventory, and the rest of the silicon manufacturers signed orders until the end of February and early March. Some small silicon wafer factories began to actively sign silicon orders from the end of February to March, regardless of the high price lock, the signing price reached a high of 250 yuan / kg.

In terms of silicon wafers, the rising trend keeps pace with the silicon material Synchronize. This week, the price of M6 single crystal wafer (166mm/ 165 μ m) was in the range of 5.2-5.35 yuan per wafer, and the average transaction price rose to 5.25 yuan per wafer. The week-on-month increase was 0.19%. The price range of M10 single crystal wafer (182mm/ 165 μ m) was in the range of 6.2-6.4 yuan / wafer, and the average transaction price increased to 6.31 yuan / wafer, with a weekly increase of 0.48%. The price range of G12 single crystal silicon wafer (210mm/ 160 μ m) is 8.35-8.55 yuan / wafer, the average transaction price is 8.51 yuan / wafer, and the cycle-to-cycle ratio is flat.

From the market reaction, the off-season is not weak is an important reason for the upstream continued slight rise. In terms of start-up, the operating rate of the two front-line silicon wafer enterprises has been maintained at 70%, and the operating rate of integrated enterprises has dropped to between 80% and 100%, partly due to shift breaks during the Spring Festival holiday. It is also understood that the procurement of components and batteries in the middle and lower reaches is equally optimistic, and battery factories rarely stop production during the Spring Festival.

In fact, from the previous game situation of the industrial chain, if the profits in the middle and lower reaches are eroded obviously, they will usually reduce the operating rate and reduce the procurement of raw materials, forcing the upstream to make price concessions. However, in the case of improved month-on-month end demand, the acceptance of silicon wafer prices in the middle and lower reaches is also trying to relax.

Industry analysts believe that under the phased mismatch between supply and demand, the price in the upper reaches of the photovoltaic industry chain is strong in the short term, and prices are still brewing. A person from silicon manufacturers told the Financial Associated Press that the recent demand for downstream exports is relatively strong, and supply and demand promote silicon prices to continue to rise. During the Spring Festival, the company produces continuously to meet the downstream silicon purchasing needs.

The price inflection point came too late during the year.

Although the inflection point of silicon price reduction is close to clear, but in the new capacity landing prenatal, the lower reaches of the industrial chain may still be in the state of waiting for plums to quench thirst. According to various forecasts in the industry, the inflection point of silicon price may appear at the end of the second quarter of this year, when the price of silicon will enter the downward trend under the change of supply and demand.

According to the statistics of CICC Research News, the 50, 000-ton Tongwei Yongxiang project was put into production in November, followed by a high probability of 50, 000 tons in the near future; the expansion of production of 28000 tons of Xinte and 35000 tons of Daquan has been completed; in addition, 20, 000 tons of granular silicon has also been put into operation in Xiexin. Taken together, the capacity increase of polysilicon during the 4Q21-1Q22 period is expected to reach more than 250000 tons, taking into account the three-month climbing period, 1H22 polysilicon demand will rise significantly.

According to the new capacity landing plan, polysilicon, which goes up all the way in 2021, is expected to fall in 2022. Citic Construction Investment predicts that in 2022, the price of silicon will go through a process of "falling first and then stabilizing at the end of the year". The price center for the whole year will be 18-200000 yuan / ton, and the average tax price of silicon material will fall to about 170000 yuan / ton in the fourth quarter. Jibang Consulting predicts that the final price of Q2 may usher in an inflection point.

However, for the above views, some analysts think that they are too optimistic. According to the statistics of the Silicon Industry Branch, it is estimated that the domestic polysilicon production capacity will reach more than 860000 tons / year in 2022, an increase of 340000 tons / year compared with the previous year. The increment includes Poly Xiexin 110000 tons / year (Jiangsu Zhongneng granular silicon, Leshan Xiexin granular silicon), Xin Special Energy 20, 000 tons / year, Xinjiang Daquan 40, 000 tons / year, Yongxiang shares 12-150000 tons / year (Tongwei Phase II of Inner Mongolia, Yongxiang New Energy Phase II, Yunnan Tongwei Phase I), Asian silicon industry 30, 000 tons / year and other subtotal 20, 000 tons / year.

From the point of view of the time node, of the 340000 tons increment for the whole year, about 180000 tons of production capacity is expected to be released in the second half of the year, and the remaining 160000 tons will be released one after another in the first quarter. According to the progress of production expansion of various enterprises, domestic polysilicon production is expected to be 157000 tons, 177000 tons, 181000 tons and 200000 tons respectively, and the total domestic silicon output for the whole year is about 715000 tons.

Yu Duo told the Financial Associated Press that the inflection point of silicon prices actually depends on the speed of production expansion by large factories. New production capacity has been put into production at the end of the first quarter, but it usually takes two months to climb the slope, and the current polysilicon production method is mainly improved Siemens method. The improved Siemens method has the characteristics of stable product quality and high production safety, but there are also technical control difficulties, especially the second-line polysilicon manufacturers' groping climbing time may be longer.