Overseas layout of lithium mines may become a "trend". The shortage of raw materials causes collective anxiety in the industrial chain.

The layout of overseas lithium mines by domestic listed companies is far from over. Less than three days after the Spring Festival, China Mineral Resources (002738.SZ) and Zangge Mining (000408.SZ) have launched. For overseas mining, Huaan Securities Metal New Materials related researchers told the Financial Associated Press that the poor domestic lithium resource endowment and the difficult matching of Qinghai-Tibet infrastructure are the main reasons for companies to turn overseas.

But the "carnival" of overseas mining is not limited to upstream lithium mines. As the shortage of power battery supply has become one of the reasons for the limited production capacity of hot-selling new energy vehicle brands, lithium ore, as the upstream of power battery, has been paid more and more attention by battery factories and even car companies. 300750.SZ, 002594.SZ and Tesla are also in the horse racing enclosure. People related to the Tou Lithium Mine told reporters that "everyone is very anxious."

Overseas distribution of lithium deposits forms a "trend"

On the evening of February 9th, Zangge Mining announced that it had signed an exclusive strategic cooperation agreement with Super Resources Co., Ltd. to carry out investment cooperation on Argentina's Laguna Verde Salt Lake Lithium Project, which is 100% owned by Super Resources. Compared with the day before, China Mineral Resources announced that it intends to acquire the Bikita mine in Zimbabwe, which already has a mineral processing capacity of 700000 tons per year.

At present, the source of domestic lithium resources is highly dependent on imports. According to Huaxi Securities, the degree of external dependence of China's lithium mineral resources has reached 85%. The above situation may be difficult to reverse in a short time. From the point of view of the distribution of lithium resources, the overseas layout of lithium mines by domestic listed companies may become a "trend". According to incomplete statistics by a reporter from the Financial Associated Press, there are 16 mergers and acquisitions of lithium resources with a transaction value of more than 100 million yuan in 2021 (excluding recovery), of which 10 are overseas mergers and acquisitions.

Researchers related to the new metal materials of Huaan Securities explained that the reasons for the overseas purchase of domestic lithium industry chain companies are mainly due to the obvious deficiency of lithium ore in China, the first is the total deficiency, the second is the structural deficiency of lithium ore distribution, and the third is the poor resource endowment.

According to the further analysis, the distribution of lithium ores in China is mainly mica in Jiangxi, spodumene in Sichuan and salt lakes in Qinghai-Tibet. However, the total amount of mica ore in Jiangxi is not particularly rich; spodumene in Sichuan is located in the Tibetan area, it is difficult to develop due to high altitude, difficult infrastructure matching, low concentration and other reasons. Qinghai salt lake is faced with problems such as high magnesium and lithium content, low lithium content, poor resource endowment, immature lithium extraction technology and so on. Tibet salt lake resource endowment is relatively good, but the same infrastructure resources are difficult to match.

According to the China Geological Survey, about 82% of China's lithium resources are found in salt lakes. However, Huaxi Securities related research report pointed out that the initial lithium concentration of most of the major salt lakes in China is 0.003% Mel 0.05%, while the initial lithium concentration of Chile's Atacama salt lake can reach 0.157%, which is 3-50 times that of the domestic salt lake.

Wang Weiquan, deputy secretary general of the Renewable Energy Special Committee of the China Energy Research Association, analyzed the pros and cons of the Financial Associated Press from the point of view of the pros and cons. The advantage of overseas mining is that it is rich in overseas resources, limited space for lithium mining in China, and fierce competition. But the disadvantage is to face policy risk, exchange rate risk, transportation risk, labor risk and so on.

Recently, the Environmental Committee of Chile's Constituent Assembly (19 people) approved a draft proposal to nationalize companies involved in the exploration and development of strategic assets, including lithium mines, and the participation in 002466.SZ in Chile's SQM Salt Lake has attracted the attention of investors.

Although Tianqi Lithium Industry said that the proposal still needs to be approved by 2 + 3 votes in the full Constituent Assembly (about 160 people) before it can become part of the proposed new constitution, and a compulsory referendum will be held after the proposed new constitution is finalized. the new constitution needs 50.1% of the vote to pass. But judging from the stock price performance, the market panic is still there.

It is worth mentioning that on 14 January, a Chilean local court said that the $61 million lithium mining contract between Chile and BYD had been suspended because of environmental protection and economic development issues.

Collective anxiety of industrial chain

With regard to the reasons for the layout of overseas lithium mines, the Secretary of China Mineral Resources told the Financial Associated Press that the company's Canadian TANCO mine has a spodumene mining and separation system with an annual capacity of 120000 tons / year in production, and the feasibility study of the opencast mining plan and the new concentrator with an annual capacity of 500000 tons / year is being carried out in an orderly manner. The company will continue to give priority to expanding self-sufficiency, locking underwriting rights and market to ensure the supply of raw materials for battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate production lines.

Lithium ore resources are seen as the future of lithium salt plants, and Ganfeng Lithium Industry (002460.SZ) acquired shares in lithium mines as many as five times in 2021. Researchers related to the new metal materials of Huaan Securities said that most domestic lithium salt enterprises are mainly lithium salt processing, so most of them are faced with the problem of raw material shortage. only by solving the problem of resource security can we effectively expand production capacity. improve market share and profitability in the rapid development of the lithium power industry.

"as the core material of electric vehicles, lithium resources are becoming more and more important. when listed companies acquire lithium mines overseas, they mainly control raw material costs and improve self-sufficiency, so as to ensure relatively stable prices in the future and have a say in lithium resources." Some new energy researchers told the Financial Associated Press.

In addition to the upstream lithium salt plant, Ningde era, BYD and Tesla are also in the horse enclosure in the lithium industry chain. In order to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, our country must build a new power system with new energy as the main body. However, at present, the degree of external dependence of cobalt, lithium, copper, nickel and other mineral resources needed by new energy is relatively high, it is difficult to replace new materials, and the degree of material recovery and recycling is relatively low. in the process of vigorously developing new energy and realizing the large-scale application of new energy storage technologies, there may be supply security risks in the new energy industry chain. " Wang Weiquan analysis said that therefore, the industrial chain believes that the acquisition of lithium ore is the key to the future.

It is worth noting that under the premise of battery-grade lithium carbonate approaching 400000 yuan / ton and enterprises "grabbing ore", the price of lithium ore is also rising. In September 2021, Ningde era tried to cut off the agreed Millennial of Ganfeng Lithium with a "better offer" of C $377 million. But in less than two months, Inter-American Lithium made a higher offer, triggering a "better offer" clause for the second time, which was nearly 22.1 per cent higher than in the Ningde era.

As for the reason why Ganfeng Lithium Industry is unwilling to continue to increase the price, a relevant person of the company explained to the Financial Associated Press reporter that it is mainly because this offer is already a relatively reasonable price, and it may be disadvantageous to all parties to continue to raise the price. "the industry is hot, but we can't (blindly) throw in the heat, we still need to do it at a reasonable valuation."

According to a minute learned by a reporter of the Financial Associated Press, Zijin Mining completed the acquisition of the new lithium company (3Q project) in January this year, and the main reasons for selling in the positive cycle are: first, the resource endowment is relatively good, and the mining difficulty will not be very great; the space for improvement is relatively large; the second is to accumulate some experience through this project. On February 10, the reporter wanted to learn about the relevant situation from Zijin Mining, but the phone could not be connected.

Wang Weiquan believes that companies that buy lithium mines should take a long-term view, because in the long run, new energy and electric vehicles are developing rapidly around the world, and the demand for lithium will continue to increase. Even if the price fluctuates in the short term, it is bullish in the long run, and the periodic difference between mining time and lithium price changes will not have much impact.