(1) basic metals: this week, the prices of base metals remained high and volatile. In the short term, copper and aluminum continue to go to the warehouse, and low inventory supports prices. In the medium term, the bottom of real estate policy is approaching, superimposed by the Central Economic Conference to stabilize the core of economic policy, pessimism is expected to gradually dissipate, and demand for basic metals is expected to hit bottom and rebound. In the long run, the ceiling of 45 million tons of capacity in the electrolytic aluminum industry will determine the upper limit of supply. under the background of carbon neutralization, the output growth of the electrolytic aluminum industry with high energy consumption and high carbon emissions will continue to be limited, and the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum will maintain a tight balance. Individual stocks: the aluminum sector is up 4.66% this week. We believe that the price of electrolytic aluminum has basically stabilized, the prices of its raw materials alumina and anode carbon have gone up and down, and the company's profits are expected to stabilize and rebound. In the medium to long term, in the context of carbon neutralization, the logic of electrolytic aluminum supply contraction continues to deduce, superimposed by emerging industries to drive demand growth, basic fabrics will promote aluminum price center to continue to move up, the company's performance is expected to maintain stable growth. Continue to pay attention to Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Tianshan Aluminum (002532) and Zijin Mining (601899). Secondly, you can pay attention to Shenhuo shares (000933), Yunnan Aluminum shares (000807) and Western Mining (601168). Hong Kong stocks focus on China Hongqiao (1378) and China Nonferrous Mining (1258).
(2) New energy metals: this week, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in Changzhou rose to 250,000 yuan / ton, constantly setting a new record. Near the end of the New year, downstream manufacturers actively prepare goods, the supply of lithium salt has not been increased, and the ex-factory price of lithium salt is expected to continue to rise. In the medium term, the upstream lithium mine development cycle is long, and the supply will be difficult to change in the short term. Downstream electric vehicles and energy storage have accounted for more than 60% of lithium demand. With the high growth of downstream demand, lithium prices are expected to rise again under the tight balance between supply and demand. Individual stocks: lithium stocks are up 0.96% this week. We believe that in the short and medium term, the upward trend of lithium prices will remain unchanged, the price will drive the plate to continue to rise, and the high profit growth of the company will gradually absorb the high valuation. In the long run, the high growth and scarce strategic resources of the lithium plate will continue to enjoy high profits and high growth. Lithium resource with scarcity attribute and quantity-price double logic is the first choice, followed by processing stock volume logic. Focus on Tianqi Lithium Industry (002466); Zang GE Holdings (000408) and Yongxing Materials (002756), other concerns: lithium: Rongjie shares (002192); Cobalt and Nickel: Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Hanrui Cobalt (300618) and Shengtun Mining (600711); Ternary precursors: Greenmei (002340), Zhongwei (300919) and Huayou Cobalt (603799); positive: Dangsheng Technology (300073) and Rongbai Technology (688005); Copper foil: Nord shares (600110) and Jiayuan Technology (688388).
Weekly market review: quote: this week, the non-ferrous metals sector fell slightly-0.38%, outperforming the CSI 300 index-3.52%. In the sub-industry, aluminum, new metal materials and copper rose by 4.66%, 1.16% and 1.06% respectively, while other rare and small metals and tungsten fell by-4.07% and-3.7%, respectively. Individual stocks: Oriental Tantalum (24.06%), Silver Nonferrous (20.36%), Aluminum of China (18.55%), Fuda Alloy (17.13%), Shenzhen Xinxing (15.76%), Nanshan Aluminum (12.07%), Jinbo shares (11.09%), Zhuye Group (9.26%), Xinrui shares (8.69%), Tiantong shares (7.72%). Volume price: basic metal: copper price: LME, SHFE and Yangtze River are 0.39%, 0.10% and 0.03% respectively; aluminum price: LME, SHFE and Yangtze River are-0.19%,-0.40% and 0.48% respectively. The global copper inventory is 2794 million tons, and the global aluminum inventory is 187.35 million tons. Energy metals: lithium price: spodumene concentrate 5.3%, industrial carbon 3.0%, Changzhou electric carbon 12.1%; cobalt price: MB standard cobalt 4.6%, spot electric cobalt 4.7%, Wuxi electric cobalt 5.7%; precursors: cobalt tetrachloride 1.7%; positive price: lithium iron phosphate 2.2% metallurgical NCM523 0.7%; negative price: no change; aluminum foil price:
No change; electrolyte: no change; diaphragm: no change.
Major event: macro: the people's Bank of China lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points.
The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week to December 4 was 184000, compared with a previous revision of 227000 and an estimated 215000. Industry: in November, China produced 825900 tons of electrolytic copper, up 4.6 percent from the previous month and 0.5 percent over the same period last year; alumina production was 6.239 million tons. Company: Zhongwei Co., Ltd. invested in 200000 tons of lithium iron phosphate project, Baiyin non-ferrous lithium electric copper foil project continued to promote.
Risk tips: basic metals: liquidity tightening, global economic recovery lower than expected; precious metals: liquidity tightening; new energy metals: overvaluation, falling prices; rare earth magnets: prices fall, valuations are high.
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