Behind the "best part" of lithium salt: pre-holiday storage starts structural tightening of supply and demand

Recently, the best part of the lithium plate has been lifted, and the Oriental Fortune Salt Lake Lithium extraction Index (861378.EI) rose 6.02% from the 17th to the 18th of this month. The back of the market carnival may be related to the downstream pre-festival stock.

A reporter from the Financial Associated Press learned from multiple interviews that the pre-holiday storage of the downstream battery factory has appeared a few days ago, and the inventory of the upstream material factory is even more tight than in previous years. Analysts told the Financial Associated Press that the current round of storage demand in overseas markets may be more obvious.

A few days ago, a Guotai Junan teleconference minutes showed that at the end of September, due to the influence of many factors such as power cuts in the cathode material factory, the rising rate of lithium prices slowed down or even sideways, but considering that the cathode material factory basically prepared goods for about half a month, logistics before and after the Spring Festival may be affected, the mood of purchasing downstream will increase, the frequency of inquiries will increase, and the tolerance for high-priced products will also increase. At the same time, it said that with the downstream stock action before the year, lithium prices may rise for the third time in the near future. At present, there are large manufacturers in the market that have begun to raise factory prices.

In a conference call on the evening of November 17, Huaan Securities, guest analysts said that recently, many trading companies have indicated that they will no longer ship goods.

With regard to the above situation, a reporter of the Financial Associated Press contacted a number of listed companies for verification, and Rongbai Technology (688005.SH) said that it is not known whether the relevant departments have stock; Ganfeng Lithium Industry (002460.SZ) insiders told the Financial Associated Press that it is customary to prepare goods downstream before the festival, but compared with previous years, supply and demand is tighter this year, inventory is more tight, and products are digested faster.

Huaan Securities Metal New Materials researcher told the Financial Associated Press that this year's stock may be more obvious in overseas markets. Although there is a practice of pre-holiday stock preparation, compared with previous years, material prices have risen significantly this year, or the willingness to replenish inventory downstream has been suppressed. in addition, the behavior of downstream factory stock preparation depends on the order volume, and from the downstream market, the increase in overseas orders may be more obvious. Compared with domestic, the penetration rate of overseas new energy market is higher.

What is noteworthy is that on November 17, the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information issued the Lithium Ion Battery Industry Standard conditions (2021) (draft for soliciting opinions) and the Lithium Ion Battery Industry Standard Bulletin (2021) (draft). The two documents respectively set clear and quantitative requirements on battery manufacturers' process equipment, product energy density and other indicators. The "normative requirements" are aimed at guiding enterprises to reduce manufacturing projects that simply expand production capacity, strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality, and reduce production costs. With the launch of the two documents, the domestic downstream expansion trend may be restricted.

Everbright Securities analysis believes that this week, the prices of electric carbon, industrial carbon and battery-grade lithium hydroxide are 19.75,19.20 and 187000 yuan / ton respectively, and the month-on-month ratio remains stable. This week, the price of Changzhou Zhonglian Gold Battery Lithium Carbonate contract (LC2202) is 224000 yuan / ton, which is 26500 yuan / ton higher than the market price of electric carbon, indicating that the market still expects the price of lithium salt to rise in the future.

The above-mentioned person in Ganfeng Lithium Industry told the Financial Associated Press that the company is still mainly based on the long-term agreement order, and the price may be adjusted due to market changes, and the price of the long-term association in the fourth quarter has basically been fixed.